It’s really hard to like the Bears these days. They have completely self-destructed. And this week they host a very scrappy Minnesota team attempting to discover their identity with a new “franchise” quarterback who displayed his grit in a close win at home against the Redskins their last time out. This game is guaranteed to be cold and windy. Not great conditions for the passing or kicking game. I expect to see see plenty of turnovers in this one. The Vikings defense has showed some potential, but they have yet to really shut down the run this season. If I was the Bears OC, I would feed the rock to Forte in excess, especially with how Cutler has looked recently. The Vikings have been much better against the pass this year. The Bears will need Forte to shine this week.
Chicago got completely whomped against the Packers last Sunday night, and a loss like that can cause turmoil, disruption, and confidence issues in the locker-room. Cutler has displayed absolutely no confidence and now faces an extremely tough pass defense, allowing an average of about 214 passing yards per game. The Bears really need Cutler to step up in order for them to win. They have some excellent passing weapons in Marshall, Jeffries, Bennet, and Forte, but it all comes down to whether or not Cutler can get the ball in their hands enough to win. So far, they’ve really struggled to do just that. Despite how suspect Chicago has been on defense, I don’t see too many points in this one. I do see a ton of turnovers, which usually results in points that can always disrupt the over/under, but this has ugly game written all o
Ryan Mallet gets his first start. Arian Foster is not expected to play. The Browns are at home playing in front of a reenergized Browns fan base. Unless Mallet displays some tricks he picked up as Brady’s backup, the Texans might be doomed in this one. There is always the one-man-show JJ Watt factor, who is capable of disrupting any offensive groove, but this matchup is definitely in the Browns favor. The weather is going to suck. Cold and windy. If Mallet’s arm strength is solid enough to defeat the wind factor, he might have a chance in this one, but he has to stay upright and deal with the Hayden-nuke shutting down any player he covers. Now the Browns are infamous for being a team that lets you down, but they were able to stick it to the Bengals last Thursday and displayed enough toughness to officially begin to take them seriously. And they will soon have Josh Gordon on the field.
The Texans on the other hand are attempting to hover around .500 while playing quarterback roulette. Not having Foster this week is devastating. With Foster in the lineup, I give the Texans a chance. No Foster, not a chance. Unless the Browns really self-destruct in this one, they should pull this one out. Hoyer plays it safe and keeps turnovers to a minimum, playing in the favor of a game that should be riddled with turnovers considering the weather factor. But overall, I expect Mallet to struggle and the Browns to slowly get it done in this one. This would’ve been a perfect matchup for Gordon to take over.
As Vegas has determined, this should be a low-scoring, close game. The weather will not be favorable to say the least and I expect this game to stay on the ground. This obviously bodes well for Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch, as both teams will look to lean on their super-backs in this one. I don’t expect the passing game to produce much of anything. Neither Wilson or Smith have been dominant in the air this season, but the advantage for the Chiefs is that they keep the passing game short. The Seahwaks have been susceptible to allowing teams to kill them in the short passing game. This is where Alex Smith masters and will need to master in this tough matchup.
For me, this is one of those home-team-wins the game scenarios for me. If this battle was in Seattle, I’d say the Seahawks take it. But this is in KC, the fans will be going nuts, and if the Chiefs can continue to play solid defense, run the ball well, and kill Seattle in the short passing game, Kansas City should come away as voctors in this one. Seattle really needs to prove something in Arrowhead, to prove that they are still an elite team, but this will be an extremely tough matchup to do so.
CHIEFS 26 – SEAHAWKS 23
FANTASY BEAST – JAMAAL CHARLES
It really says a lot about how bad the Panthers have been lately with Vegas favoring the Falcons this week in Carolina considering how bad the Falcons have been this year. The Eagles absolutely ate the Panthers alive last Monday night, allowing Dirty Sanchez to dice them up all over the field. The Panthers exposed a ton of weaknesses last week that the Falcons should be looking to exploit in this matchup. The Panthers can not protect Cam. The Panthers can not stop the pass. The Panthers allow big plays on special teams. Translation for the Falcons; blitz the hell out of Newton, throw the ball to Julio, and pray that they kick the ball to Hester. But let’s not get too hyped up on the Falcons and too down on the Panthers.
The Panthers can turn it on at times. Their running game has been suspect to say the least, but Newton can shred you on the ground when you take your eyes off of him. The Falcons pass defense has been horrendous and Cam has no problems launching the ball to Benjamin or Olsen down the field. This one has potential shoot-out written all over it. Both of these defenses have been very beatable in the air and expect both teams to go for it this week in Carolina. Keep this in mind when breaking down this matchup… Carolina has proven in the past that when you think they are done, they step up and get it done. And just when you think the Falcons are looking better, they completely self-destruct and blow it. The Panthers need a rebound win big-time and the Falcons need a win to keep their fans from selling their season-tickets to opponent fans, if they haven’t done so already. I’d like
The Bengals have really self-destructed lately. Big-time. It’s hard to get confident about this team in any matchup, especially this one in the Superdome. If they couldn’t handle the Browns on their home-turf, how are they going to handle the Saints this week? The Saints are looking to get to .500 in this game, while the Bengals are looking to save face after a horrible loss to a division rival. The Saints played the Niners really tough last week and easily could’ve won that game. Surprisingly for the Saints as of late, it’s been their rushing game that has really proved to be solid. Now facing a Bengals team that got nuked on the ground against the Browns, you have to think that the Saints will continue to feed the ball to Ingram. That first round investment has finally started to pay off.
The Bengals were looking to get some juice back with AJ Green suiting up, but unfortunately for the Bengals, Andy Dalton looks flat out benchable at this point of the season. Not that Jason Campbell could ever be the savior to this team, but there is really no way he could possibly play worse than Dalton did last Thursday night. The Saints have some secret weapons on defense that have done extremely well against some formidable foes so far this season. The Saints aren’t known for their defense, but it could be their winning formula this week if they can force Dalton to continue to make bad throws and decisions. If the Saints jump up early and force Dalton to make things happen, well, give me the Saints fantasy defense please. It also doesn’t help that Gio will be out again this week and the Bengals will nee
Honestly, being a Skins fan, it’s hard to ever take Washington with over a touchdown. The Bucs have some players that will no doubt give this Skins defense issues. Breeland has been playing outstanding, but he’s still a rook and will make mistakes. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson will give the Skins problems. But it does come down to Josh McCown being able to get them the ball. Unfortunately for the Skins, they allowed Bridgewater to get it done late in the game the last time out. Unless RG3 and Alfred Morris can completely dominate the clock and keep the chains moving, the Bucs will have a chance in this one.
So this is how I see this one playing out. The Skins are at home, RG3 needs to have a big game, and the Bucs suck. The Skins come out hyped and motivated, jump out to an early lead before halftime, something like 20-7 and then roll over and play dead. They attempt to run the clock out in the second half and play pussy football as the Bucs begin to launch it all over the field to Evans and Jackson in a game of catch up. Should the Skins be able to jump out to a comfortable lead and win this one convincingly? Of course. Will the Bucs just give up and not make this a game? No way. So yes, and as a Skins fan, I’ll say Washington wins 27-17. But could I see the Bucs making this one close in the second half? Most definitely. Don’t be surprised if the Skins blow this 7.5 at home.
REDSKINS 27 – BUCS 20 (Could be a 27-24 ballgame)
This is my pick of the week. The Broncos will dismantle the Rams, they are by far the better team, and the Rams are throwing Shaun Hill out to the wolves. I will give the Rams credit that their defense has stood up to most tests, but they stand no chance in this test. Peyton loves indoors and will completely dismantle this Rams team from start to finish. Peyton has to realize that there is nobody that can stop Demaryius Thomas on this Rams defense. Demaryius knows it, Peyton knows it, and the Rams know it. I wouldn’t be shocked if Demaryius scores three TD’s this week. Peyton has been known to choose his certain weapon each game, and in this matchup, that’s his weapon.
The Rams defense has been able to apply pressure against opposing QB’s with fierceness. No doubt. But they’ve also been lit up in many games as well. Peyton will cherish the fact that he’s playing indoors and he loves that comfortable feel of playing indoors. If the Rams play their absolute balls off, they might be able to cover nine points, but this has blowout written all over it. As Jeff Fisher rolls out Shaun Hill as his starting QB, don’t think for one second he won’t be completely envious of this Denver Broncos team with Peyton at the helm.
BRONCOS 37 – RAMS 13
FANTASY BEAST – DEMARYIUS THOMAS
Well, Frank Gore has to be licking his lips with this matchup. The Giants can’t stop anyone on the ground apparently. It doesn’t help that they will be facing Kaepernick who has the ability to shred any defense on foot. The Niners are without question the better team in this matchup, hence the 3.5 hedge on this game in their favor. The Giants are always a mystery team. They do have Jennings coming back this week, they have a true raw talent in Beckham, and that Manning guy who has been known to break hearts here and there. But the Giants have looked dysfunctional throughout the season and it’s hard to ever predict them to actually win a game.
The Niners on the other hand are coming off a solid road win against a tough Saints team in the Superdome. They didn’t really do anything truly beastlike, but they did just enough to come away with the W. They face a slightly weaker test on the road this week, but as always with the Giants, the X-factor is there. Just when you think that the Giants are done, they punch you in the mouth. The Niners have been the complete opposite. Just when you think the 49ers are an elite team, they get punked. The Giants will hope to be the ones punking instead of getting punked in their own stadium. This one really comes down to which Giants team shows up to play.
49ERS 27 – GIANTS 23
FANTASY B
Now this is a hefty spread against a scrappy Oakland team. I’ve actually been impressed with Carr so far during his rookie season so far. But the Chargers really need this game to get back on track. Now these teams hate each other to say the least, and the better bet is that there will be somebody that gets stabbed in the parking lot, but I’d say it’s safe to say that the Chargers come away with the win in this one. Ryan Matthews is back, but he’s far from the saving grace to this Chargers offense. This matchup strictly comes down to the level of beast mode Phillip Rivers decides to display in this one.
The Chargers have really dropped to ball as of late and need a big win to get them back on track. As far as matchups, they can’t ask for a better opponent to do just that against than the winless Oakland Raiders. But the Raiders played the Chargers tough up in Oakland during their first meeting, covering the spread, and will look to do at least so in this matchup. Whether or not they will be able to stop the Chargers from getting back on track remains the question, but 10.5 seems like a lot for the Chargers to cover, even being at home. I see the Chargers dominating this one, but allowing the Raiders to cover late in the game.
CHARGERS 27 – RAIDERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – KEENAN ALLEN
Yeah, yeah, Rodgers is the man at home. Completely dominate to say the least. You saw what he did against Chicago last week, but the more important thing to focus on is the number Cam ended up with against the Eagles last week. Deceiving, yes, no doubt, but numbers are numbers. Will the Eagles and their suspect pass defense be able to slow down Arod and company? Not a chance. So this matchup now falls onto the question of whether or not Sanchez and company will be able to score enough points to compete. Don’t bank on it and the Pack will show why they are a much better team than the Eagles in Lambeau Field this week.
The Eagles have many tricks up their sleeve, but they will need outstanding play from their defense and Sanchez to compete in this one. Let me repeat myself on record, dating back to blogs I wrote years ago. Sanchez sucks. Now I will say that he is in the best position he’s ever been in since USC to put solid numbers on the board, but that will not change my mind that he’s just not that good. The Packers will prove that this week and the only chance Sanchez has of putting up good numbers in Green Bay is if the Eagles are down by a ton and are forced to throw. But that being said, the same situation didn’t do much for Cutler last week.
PACKERS 38 – EAGLES 24
FANTASY BEAST – JORDY NELSON
The only reason the Cards are favorites in this one is because they are at home. I don’t believe the home field advantage will play that much of a factor in this one. I think what will play a factor in this one is the fact that Carson Palmer is out and the Cards have been horrible against stopping the pass. That’s bad news when you’re facing Calvin and Golden. Both teams are great against the run. The only thing that separates this matchup is that Detroit is rolling with Stafford and the Cards are rolling with their backup. The Cardinals have been playing above expectations all season, but the buck stops here. The Lions have been waiting for Megatron to get back on the field and he is back in a big way. Patrick Peterson, as proven in the past, can not stop Calvin.
The Cardinals in my opinion are done. I’m not saying that Carson Palmer is the end all-be all, but they are much weaker without him. I never thought the Cards had a chance to do much even with Palmer in the lineup, despite their great coaching and run defense, and now that Stanton is leading the way, their demise will begin. This will be the first loss of many to come to the Cardinals and confidence will digress as the losses stack up. Stanton is not the savior, and at best he could be a Trent Dilfer type winner… if the Cardinals had that Ravens defense.
LIONS 27 – CARDINALS 17
Can’t wait for this one. Are the Colts for real? Are the Pats for real? I guess we’ll find out this week in Indy. Turnovers are the key in this one. If Luck tries to do too much and throws picks, it will put the Colts in a huge hole. But after watching Brady for years and Luck for a couple, I think you will see the most soon-to-be Hall of Famer come away with the dominant performance in this one. I think Brady is going to go nuts. Tossing touchdown passes all over the field and the Colts will attempting to play catch-up the entire game. Gronk will go nuts and Luck will throw interceptions. That’s how I see this one playing out.
Fourth quarter, Colts will be down and Luck will be slinging on all cylinders. Could the comeback kid, talking about Luck here, make a significant comeback in the fourth and bring the Colts to victory? I guess we’ll see, but I believe the Pats take control of this game and force that scenario. I would love to see Luck do just that, but I think New England will defeat Luck in Indy just like they used to do to Peyton.
PATRIOTS 31 – COLTS 27
FANTASY BEAST – ROB GRONKOWSKI
Pretty much not putting my money on Zach Mettenberger on Monday night. But in the Titans defense, the Steelers were 4.5 favorites on the road against the Jets and got their asses kicked. Now they’re six point favorites on the road. But, does anyone think that the Titans can come even close to beating the Steelers in this one? Do you think that the Steelers are going to lose two consecutive road games that they should win? Do you think that the Steelers are super pissed that they lost to the Jets last week? The Titans suck on all fronts. They have a rookie QB who is not that good. They have WR’s that have yet to show anything worthwhile. They have a running game that can’t find anyone to dash for over 100 yards. They have a defense that looks like they might be able to stop you, but really can’t.
The Titans haven’t faced a QB that was capable of throwing for mass yardage since week four. Now they face Big Ben, who has almost surpassed Bret Favre’s career yardage numbers in three games. In week four they faced Andrew Luck, who almost dropped 400 passing yards on them. The Titans pass defense is supposed to be their strength, but that might be because they haven’t faced too many QB’s this season that could really chuck the ball. Big Ben happens to be one of them and he will be tossing it at full force this week to an excellent receiving core. On top of that, Le’Veon Bell faces a choice matchup and should have his way with this defense. Unless the Titans play their balls off at home, like the Jets did, this should be a big win for Big Ben. But after the St
The weather will be bad this week. Cold, windy, and not favorable to offenses. But, with cold weather comes turnovers, and with turnovers comes points off of turnovers. There are plenty of bottom-line unders this week that could be determined by a pick six here or a fumble recovery there. Keep that in mind. But there should be plenty of high flying indoor games this week, so if you’re playing fantasy, keep note.
So here are my picks of the week. Please keep in mind that I am riding high on the Steelers again this week, not as my pick of the week, but I do see them destroying the Titans in Tennessee. That being said, I also believed that they would destroy the Jets in New York. Obviously that did not happen. So be warned, because I like the Steelers again his week. So here’s my picks.
PICK OF THE WEEK
Lions to cover
PICKS THREE
Lions to cover
Kept my head above water, but whiffed big on my pick of the week across the board. What can I say, the Jets showed up to play. Finally. I honestly believed that the Steelers were a lock at covering 4.5. But the Jets played their asses off and probably saved Rex Ryan’s job… for at least another week. But outside of that epic fail, I did hit four grand slams (nailing the moneyline, over/under, spread, and fantasy beast). This was a great week for my over-under numbers, hitting ten of thirteen. But overall, not bad. As long as you did not solely commit to my pick of the week, I should’ve won you money again. That’s what I’m here for.
So this is how week ten rounded out for me:
LAST WEEK
Moneyline: 9-4 (73-34-1 on the season)
ATS: 7-6 (59-48 on the season)
O/U: 10-3 (61-44-3 on the season)
(ATS & O/U) Homeruns: 6 (28 on the season)
Overall, not a bad week. I hit my pick of the week again, going 3-0 since I began doing it. I’m do for a loss here soon, but let’s keep it going. We have some tough matchups this week, so we’ll see where it goes, but hopefully I’ve been able to help you out so far. All of my numbers have continued to stay up and my only goal is to win you money. Let’s see how we do this week…
So here are my results for week nine, not bad overall, but I’d like to do better. For the first week this season I am doing the Thursday night game, not because I think it’s an easy one, but because I’m headed up to San Fran this weekend and am writing this blog earlier than I usually do. So keep that in mind if some random things happen before the Sunday games begin.
LAST WEEK
Moneyline: 9-3 (64-30-1 on the season)
ATS: 7-5 (52-42-1 on the season)
O/U: 7-4-1 (51-41-3 on the season)
(ATS & O/U) Homeruns: 5 (22 on the season)
Fantasy Beast: 8-4 (56-39 on the season)
Pick of the week: 1-0 (NE/DEN over) (3-0 on the season)
Top 3 Picks: 2-1 (NE/DEN over, PIT to cover, SF to cover) (7-2 on the season)
Top 5 Picks: 3-2 (NE/DEN over, PIT to cover, SF to cover, IND/NYG over, WAS/MIN under) (9-6 on the season)
Top 7 Picks: 4-3 (NE/DEN over, PIT to cover, SF to cover, IND/NYG over, WAS/MIN under, CIN to cover, KC to cover)
There are some tough games this week and there will undoubtedly be some upsets. Hopefully I can keep my pick of the week going and it’s hard not to like the red-hot Steelers against a crumbling Jets team. Pittsburgh is a little banged up on defense, but I definitely see them winning by at least a touchdown on the road.
As always, keep an eye on weather this week. It could snow in Buffalo and Green Bay and we could see rain in Tampa, London, and of course Seattle. In bad weather games, I usually like the unders, but sometimes it results in more points off of turnovers. But regardless, the weather shouldn’t be too much of a factor this week and we have some really good games to watch.
PICK OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh to cover
PICK THREE
Pittsburgh to cover
Broncos to cover
Atlanta to cover
PICK FIVE
Pittsburgh to cover
Broncos to cover
Atlanta to cover
Baltimore to cover
Over in the Atlanta-Tampa Bay game
PICK SEVEN
Pittsburgh to cover
Broncos to cover
Atlanta to cover
Baltimore to cover
Over in the Atlanta-Tampa Bay game
Carolina to cover
Over in the New Orleans-San Francisco game
Statistically, these teams matchup almost identically. Now the edge goes to Cincinnati strictly because they are playing at home. And honestly, they are the better team in this matchup. But considering that this is one of the best rivalries in the league, especially considering that both teams are actually over .500 this season, it should be a close one. But when observing all of the details in this one, I can’t see the Bengals blowing this one at home. Thursday game have been a mess so far this year, but Cincy should win this one in style. The Browns will attempt to prevent the Bengals from running all over them, but that’s actually exactly what’s going to happen.
The Browns haven’t been able to stop anyone on the ground this season, excluding the Raiders last week. Jeremy Hill looked absolutely awesome as Gio’s replacement and proved that he is quite the task to bring down. With the inconsistent play of Andy Dalton so far this season and Gio looking to be out once again, expect the Bengals to rely heavily on Hill this week seeking a repeat performance against this beatable Browns run defense. On top of that, the Bengals are getting a healthier AJ Green this week that should tie up Joe Hayden, opening up the remainder of the offense. As for the Browns, just hope that Hoyer is still starting after halftime. Don’t get me wrong, this actually should be a close game, I just don’t think it will be.
BENGALS 24 – BROWNS 17
FANTASY BEAST – JEREMY HILL
This one should be a nasty one. Both teams matchup quite well against one another in all the right categories. For example, the Chiefs like to run the ball, and the Bills have been excellent against the run. The Chiefs have been susceptible against the run, but the Bills can’t run the ball. I think the biggest X-factor in this one is if Sammy Watkins will be able to play. This kid is the truth and I’m not sure if any defense can stop him, regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Bills. But this groin injury should no doubt at least slow him down if not keep him out of this game, so advantage Chiefs.
The Bills are an extremely difficult team to play at home and with their success so far this season expect their fans to be going nuts in this one. This is a huge game and the Bills will be ready. I do believe, along with Vegas, that the Chiefs have a better ball club this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Bills pull this one out. Honestly, this one could go either way. Charles will not have any easy task moving the chains this week, placing more pressure on Smith to get the passing game going. Smith was able to produce through the air last week against the Jets, but that was against the Jets. I expect a defensive battle in this one and the team that turns over the ball the least should win. Can I call a tie? Well, if Sammy Watkins turns out to be okay and close to 100%, I like the Bills. If not, I like Kansas City. From everything I’ve heard so far (11/5), Sammy will play but is not 100%. So I’ll take the Chiefs, but I don’t like it.
CHIEFS 20 – BILLS 17
FANTASY BEAST – TRAVIS KELCE
You would think after observing these defenses so far this season that this one has under written all over it. Both of these defensive units have been playing excellent (excluding that first half in London against the Falcons as far as Detroit in concerned). Miami is coming off of a shut out against a solid Chargers offense and the Lions are looking to build off of that second half they had against the Falcons. Megatron is expected back in this one, so we’ll see how the Phins secondary will scheme to slow him down, but Golden Tate is still the man to focus on in this Lions passing game. The advantage for the Lions is that not only is Calvin coming back this week, but so is Reggie Bush, now giving the Lions an extremely legit three-headed running monster.
If the Lions can keep the Miami defense busy with their passing attack, they should be able to exploit the Dolphins on the ground. What Miami will continue to struggle at is moving the chains on the ground against this fierce Lions run defense. I don’t see Tannehill doing too much damage in the air, so I believe the Lions will take care of this one at home.
LIONS 23 – DOLPHINS 20
FANTASY BEAST – GOLDEN TATE
Here we go with another one of these London games. I just heard a report that stated that London has the best chance of getting an NFL team. Over LA, over San Antonio, over Portland. Wow. If that happens, the NFL are official sell-outs. Sure having a team in London could generate income for the NFL, but don’t they have enough money? Could there ever be a San Diego or Seattle matchup that would be fair against a London team? It makes me sick to my stomach that an American city that not only wants, but could support an NFL franchise would lose out on that opportunity as a team goes to England. Football should stay in America. Let them have futbol. But at least this game won’t start at 6am on the west coast this week.
Oh yeah, Cowboys vs. the Jags. I mean, let’s be honest, Tony Romo or not, the Cowboys should win this one. What’s funny is that I don’t think they will, even with Romo. The Jags have been playing their hearts out and the Cowboys look like they are headed to yet another 8-8 finish. Honestly, all the Cowboys have to do is feed the ball to Murray 30+ times in this ball game and they will win. But watch, they won’t and they will lose. But I don’t have the balls to say the Jags will outright win this one, but I see them covering the spread.
COWBOYS 23 – JAGUARS 20
FANTASY BEASY – DEMARCO MURRAY (HE BETTER BE)
A couple weeks ago, the Niners looked like a good team and the Saints couldn’t buy a win. Now the Saints look to be back on track and the Niners look like they ran right off of it. The Saints are dominate at home and the Niners just lost at home. Until I see something positive come from this San Fran offense, I can’t see them being able to compete with the Saints this week, especially in New Orleans.
Brees still has a chance to reach 5,000 passing yards this season but once again if he can churn out some beaster games before this regular season is over. The Saints are playing for ownership of this division as the Niners are now on the outskirts of making the playoffs. I initially thought that the 49ers had a team that was locked to be playing in January. Now, I just don’t see it. San Fran will be lucky to win ten games this season unless they get on a roll, but I don’t see that happening this week.
SAINTS 30 – 49ERS 24
FANTASY BEAST – DREW BREES
The Ravens really need this one. After a couple big losses to division rivals, Baltimore is facing a mid-season drought, but there might not be a better team to face right now than the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are not looking good right now in any facet of the game and will most likely struggle offensively facing a Ravens defense looking to get back on track. Baltimore has been excellent against the run this season and the Titans have nobody in their backfield that should put up too much of a challenge. Tennessee will have to find ways to move the chains through the air, as Baltimore has been suspect against the pass as of late. Not having Jimmy Smith once again this week will only help the Titans chances to do just that.
I believe Harbaugh will have these guys ready to get it done at home. I just don’t see Baltimore blowing this one at home against a team they really should stomp. The Titans haven’t been able to stop the run this year and face a formidable three headed monster running attack with Forsett, Taliaferro, and Pierce. They haven’t been great against the pass, but if you have to pick one thing positive for the Titans this season it would be their secondary. At times. But consistency has been a problem for Tennessee and the Ravens should find holes as this game unwinds.
RAVENS 30 – TITANS 13
FANTASY BEAST – JUSTIN FORSETT
I really can’t believe that the Steelers are only 4.5 point favorites this week. I don’t think playing in New York this season should warrant lowering a spread that should be sitting somewhere around 10. Pittsburgh has been red hot and now get to face a Jets secondary that has given up the most passing touchdowns in the league. And Big Ben has thrown 200 touchdowns in the last two weeks against solid defenses in big games. Now the Steelers have always been that mystery team that can always show up and lay and egg, but they have also been that team in the past that once they get rolling, they’re really hard to stop. With the troubles the Jets have been having across the board, I don’t see this being the team that stops them.
As long as the Steelers keep the momentum rolling, this should be an easy win for them. The Jets don’t know who to start at QB, both guys are playing horrible this year, so all of the pressure falls on the running game. If the Jets are smart, they’ll do everything they can to get the running game going to eat up the clock and keep the hot-handed Roethlisberger off of the field as much as possible. They will have to have a similar game plan to what they had against the Patriots, when they were able to rush for over 200 yards. But considering that the Steelers have been pretty decent against the run and nobody outside of Percy Harvin should worry you in the passing game, the Jets looked doomed but once again. If the Steelers don’t blow this one, it should be a big win for Pittsburgh.
STEELERS 31 – JETS 17
FANTASY BEAST – ANTONIO BROWN
Talk about two horrendous defenses. These guys can’t stop anybody this season. Tampa can’t win at home and the Falcons, well, they just can’t win period. Just when the Falcons looked as if they were getting back on track in their last game in London, they self-destructed but once again and blew a game they should’ve won. The Bucs are turning to Josh McCown again to get it going and won’t find two many better defensive matchups to do just that. At least he doesn’t have to worry about getting sacked apparently. But this Tampa defense looks like one of the worst units I’ve ever seen. Great news for Matt Ryan and company. They could really use a soft defense to crank up this potentially explosive offense they have. The Bucs really don’t have anyone that is going to be able to stop Julio Jones, or really anyone on the Falcons offense.
This one comes down to the fact that the Falcons just have the better offense in this one. Statistically, the Falcons aren’t much better on defense, but offensively they are a much better unit than Tampa. Unless McCown can utilize his monstrous wide receiving weapons to his advantage against this suspect Falcons pass defense, it will be a long day in Tampa. It is a division game and the Bucs really need a win, but the Falcons will be looking at this one just the same. And there is no better place to play on the road this year than in Tampa Bay.
FALCONS 36 – BUCCANEERS 26
FANTASY BEAST – JULIO JONES
The Raiders really need a win, but it probably won’t come this week. At least they are not 14.5 dogs like last week against Seattle. The Raiders have been much better against the pass than the run this season, but I wouldn’t want to be the secondary playing Peyton Manning a week after he got pillaged by Tom Brady and the Pats. Manning “stunk” in his opinion and still threw for over 400 yards. I do believe that the Broncos will exploit this weak Raiders run defense, but you can still put around 300 yards in the bank for Peyton with at least two TDs.
Despite the Raiders 0-8 record this year, they have been a scrappy team. They turned a blowout into a closer game last week against the Hawks, in a game they were predicted to lose by more than two touchdowns. These two teams are rivals, but last season when Denver went to Oakland they dismantled the Raiders, leading 31-0 at halftime. I see a similar game brewing up in this one. You never want to face a pissed off Peyton Manning.
BRONCOS 37 – RAIDERS 17
FANTASY BEAST – PEYTON MANNING
I don’t want to call the Cardinals the surprise team of the year, because they had a good season in 2013, but I really didn’t see them sitting at 7-1 and in first place of the NFC West halfway through the season. The Rams have been playing extremely tough so far and earned a big win last week on the road in SF. St. Louis dismantled Kaepernick last week, sacking him left and right. They will need to do so again this week against Palmer to prevent him from getting the ball to his talented receivers. But regardless, the Rams will have to score points in this one. They can’t expect to score and win with 13 points again this week.
The Rams will also have to stop the run. Ellington hasn’t been great, but he has been efficient enough to provide the Cardinals with a formidable ground game. The Rams have allowed an average of 136 yards rushing so far, so look for Ellington to get his carries. The Rams have been very hit or miss this year. They either get blown out or make it a game. But two of their victories have come against division rivals that were favored. The Cards should win this one, but the Rams aren’t going to make it easy.
CARDINALS 26 – RAMS 20
FANTASY BEAST – ANDRE ELLINGTON
The Giants seem to be getting worse as the season progresses as the Seahawks seem to be getting back on track. Defensively, the Hawks look much improved which isn’t great news for a Giants team that was a complete offensive mess against the Colts on MNF. I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many dropped balls in my life. The Giants looked slightly better in the second half, but they were already done by then. New York’s defense is a complete disaster this year and losing their best cornerback will not help matters. Seattle on the other hand really needs to get this offense clicking on all fronts. They finally were able to put some points up on the board, though against the Raiders, and continued to look better on defense. If the Seahawks can continue to move the chains offensively and prevent opposing teams from doing so, Seattle could return to being one of the most feared teams in the league.
The Giants on the other hand are one of the least feared teams in the league. They are traveling cross country to play in one of the loudest stadiums on the planet. Actually I believe they proved that it is the loudest. But anyway, the 12th man will only help Seattle in this one. Eli hasn’t had a bad season so far and honestly last week he threw plenty of incompletions that should’ve been caught. They will not be able to afford to drop balls this week in Seattle.
SEAHAWKS 31 – GIANTS 20
FANTASY BEAST – MARSHAWN LYNCH
The big question this week was how healthy Aaron Rodgers would be come game time. Rodgers is dealing with a hamstring injury and those can always be nasty. If Rodgers is even at 90% this week against the Bears, the Packers should blow out Chicago at home. Cutler has actually had a solid season statistically, but he just can’t seem to win. The Packers on the other hand took a tough road loss against the Saints their last time out and will look to rebound against a Bears team that just allowed 51 points on the road to New England.
The Bears have allowed opposing offenses to score at ease this season and now face a Packers team that crushed them in Chicago 38-17 back in week four. The biggest weakness for the Packers have been their run defense and the Bears must exploit that to have a chance in this one. If they can get Forte going early and keep ARod off the field, it will give them an opportunity to stay in this one. But they have to find a way to prevent Jordy and Cobb from finding the end zone like they did so easily the first time these two teams played. But if Rodgers is healthy, despite injuries along the offensive line which could hurt, the Packers should be able to score enough points against this suspect Chicago defense.
PACKERS 31 – BEARS 23
FANTASY BEAST – RANDALL COBB
Outside of that Seattle loss, the Panthers have given up a ton of points. Now they face one of the most explosive offenses in the league on MNF. The Eagles swapped out one turnover prone QB for another in Mark Sanchez. If it’s one thing Sanchez does well, it’s turnover the ball. Now he might supposedly be a better fit for this Chip Kelly offense, but he’s still far from an elite QB. Cam Newton on the other hand is attempting to reestablish himself as an elite QB. The Eagles defense will be without DeMeco Ryans, which is probably the best news Cam can hear this week. Newton really needs to become a threat running the ball again for this offense to truly be effective. He might be able to do just that with Ryans on the sidelines.
As for the Eagles, they are a system team, so it really shouldn’t matter who is playing behind center. The Panthers were able to force some turnovers against the Saints and should have plenty of opportunities to do so again with Sanchez in the game. If the Panthers can force turnovers and run the ball effectively, they will have a shot in this one. But they will need some output from their receivers. Kelvin Benjamin has dropped way too many balls in the end zone and it has really cost the Panthers as of late. I see this one being close and the Panthers do have a decent shot at pulling the upset on the road this Monday night.
PANTHERS 26 – EAGLES 23
FANTASY BEAST – LESEAN MCCOY
FREE DEMO LOGIN username: demouser password: W3lc0m3!
I was definitely on point picking some solid fantasy studs last week, but against the spread and the over/unders I broke even. But hey, at least I didn’t lose you money. For the second week in a row I hit my pick of the week and finished 2-1 for my top three, and for the 2nd week in a row hit 3-2 in my top five. Can’t hate me. This week coming up has a couple tough games and a ton of teams are on bye weeks, so that saves me a couple articles to write.
So here were my results for week eight. Hopefully it helped you out. That’s what I’m here for. Hey, you’re out celebrating Halloween and I’m on the computer doing research for you. Thank me later.
LAST WEEK
Moneyline: 9-5 (55-27-1 on the season)
ATS: 7-7 (45-37-1 on the season)
O/U: 7-7 (44-37-2 on the season)
(ATS & O/U) Homeruns: 4 (17 on the season)
Fantasy Beast: 9-5 (48-35 on the season)
Pick of the week: 1-0 (Houston to cover) (2-0 on the season)
Top 3 Picks: 2-1 (Houston to cover, Miami to cover, Detroit to cover) (5-1 on the season)
Top 5 Picks: 3-2 (Houston to cover, Miami to cover, Detroit to cover, GB/NO over, PHI/ARZ over) (6-4 on the season)
Feel free to hit me up with any suggestions, questions, comments, or fantasy advice. (joshsouder@gmail.com)
I’ve been golden with my pick of the week, so we’ll see if I can keep it going. As for my top three picks each week (only my second week doing this), I’ve been 5-1. Hopefully I can keep it going and win you some money. I’m going to give you some extra ones this week because I like a lot of the matchups.
Now according to my numbers from my predicted scores, my lock of the week should be the over in the Patriots-Broncos game. And since I’ve used this strategy and won the last two weeks, I’ll stick to it. But just for records sake, regardless of my method, I absolutely love the under in the Redskins-Vikings game and for the Chiefs to cover. Just saying to keep that in mind…
PICK OF THE WEEK
Over in the New England-Denver game (SUNDAY ADDITION: WEATHER LOOKS BAD TODAY WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF POINTS SCORED IN THIS ONE. THE UNDER HAS DROPPED TO 51)
PICK THREE
Over in the New England-Denver game
San Francisco to cover
Pittsburgh to cover
PICK FIVE
Over in the New England-Denver game
San Francisco to cover
Pittsburgh to cover
Over in the Indianapolis-New York Giants game
Under in the Washington-Minnesota game
PICK SEVEN
Over in the New England-Denver game
San Francisco to cover
Pittsburgh to cover
Over in the Indianapolis-New York Giants game
Under in the Washington-Minnesota game
Cincinnati to cover
Kansas City to cover (potential blowout)
And just for the record, Seattle should blowout the Raiders at home. Good luck this week.
This is going to be an interesting one. The Chargers are banged up and traveling cross country to face a team they haven’t beat since 1982. These teams statistically matchup quite well against one another, especially when you look at the defensive stats. But what I think this one comes down to is that the Chargers have been much better offensively. The Dolphins struggled incredibly hard against the Jags and I think the Chargers might put up a better defensive fight than Jacksonville did. Until I see this Dolphins offense gel, there is no way I can feel confident that the Dolphins will be able to score more points than the Chargers in this one. Even if it is in Miami.
The Dolphins defense is no slouch, but they will have their hands full attempting to slow down Rivers. This Chargers offense has been able to move the chains and Brandon Oliver is a tough little dude to stop (Sproles 2.0). I think this one will be close, considering the factors that the Chargers have to face, but it’s hard not to like the Chargers as underdogs in this one. They have a great chance to win this game in Miami and any time you hear that about an underdog you have to roll the dice on them.
CHARGERS 24 – DOLPHINS 20
FANTASY BEAST – BRANDON OLIVER (NOT AFRAID OF DONALD BROWN BEING HEALTHY)
Well I guess the given is that the Bengals can’t lose this one at home. Not if they want to flex as one of the leagues best teams. Cincinnati has been lights out at home and defeated an excellent Ravens ballclub last week. The Jags on the other hand have been terrible on the road. The Bengals are missing some key elements to their equation though, with possibly both AJ Green and Gio Bernard not being able to play this week. Luckily, they are playing arguably the worst team in the league. Though the Bengals have better number on the offensive side of the ball (but keep in mind the possibility of no Green or Bernard), the Jags have been better on defense. Unfortunately for the Jags, every time their rookie QB steps onto the field he gives the opposing defense a touchdown. The Bengals will be looking to get at least one of those.
Obviously Vegas and I agree that the Bengals should smash the Jags in this one. But the Jags have been playing tough and the Bengals haven’t been on top of their game as of late. Don’t be surprised if the Jags play their balls off and make this one closer than Vegas and I feel it will be. But even without Green, Bernard, and Burfict, the Bengals should win this one convincingly. If Gio doesn’t play, get the rook Hill in your lineup asap.
BENGALS 30 – JAGUARS 13
FANTASY BEAST – JEREMY HILL (GIO IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY AS OF NOW)
Outside of stopping the run, the Browns really dominate this one statistically. The Browns are touchdown favorites for the second week in a row and if they hadn’t gifted the Jags with their only win of the season, Cleveland would be 5-2 right now. I can’t help but live in the shoes of a Browns fan right now who are about to get Josh Gordon back and have a guy sitting on the bench with the name of Johnny Football. Hoyer has been playing decent enough to keep his job, but you have to wonder if he struggles against a horrible Tampa team this week if we won’t see Manziel on the field in the second half. Honestly speaking, I don’t see Hoyer taking this team to the playoffs. So why not roll the dice on Manziel when Gordon hits the field and see what happens? You want some excitement in Cleveland? That’ll do it.
But back to the game. Obviously the Browns should win this one, but the running game has been slack without Alex Mack. Losing their probowl center has really damaged their running game and Ben Tate’s YPC. This should be a game where the Browns will be able to move the ball offensively at ease considering their opponent, but I don’t think Tampa is going to show up and hand over a victory in this one. I’d expect that Lovie is on this team to play their balls off and I’m expecting them to give it their best shot. Cleveland should win this one, but it’s probably the Bucs best shot at winning their second game of the season.
BROWNS 23 – BUCS 17
FANTASY BEAST – ANDREW HAWKINS
RG3 is back and apparently ready to go. The question stills remains, as it even did when he was healthy in week one, is Griffen’s grasp on this new offense. He didn’t seem to fully get it week one against the Texans, but he has had plenty of weeks holding that clipboard and studying film to understand it a little better at this point. Zimmer and Gruden know each other well, but this time when they face off they will have their own teams to throw up against one another. The Vikings defense has improved drastically, but their offense has yet to really click. The Skins on the other hand have had some excellent offensive performances and will look for another one with RG3 behind center this week.
RG3 had a great game his rookie season at Minnesota and will look to do so once again this week with his return to the field. I would’ve let Colt start one more game and let RG3 return after the bye week, but Washington apparently feels that Griffen is ready to go. The last two times the Redskins have made the playoffs they went on viscous winning streaks, so the Vikings will stand in their way this week for win #3. I’m expecting a low scoring, defensive battle as RG3 gets used to running this offense.
REDSKINS 20 – VIKINGS 17
FANTASY BEAST – DESEAN JACKSON
The Eagles will get a massive boost on offense with Darren Sproles returning to the field this week. And it doesn’t hurt the Eagles that Clowney might not be a go either. Nick Foles has come down to Earth after his ridiculous numbers last season, but he still managed to toss for 400+ yards in that Eagles loss to the Cards last week. The Texans have been led by JJ Watt and this Texans defense thus far this season, but they need some help on the offensive side of the ball. Arian Foster has been holding his own and DeAndre Hopkins has been stepping it up, but the Texans will really need to find their rhythm against this Eagles defense to pull this one out.
If the Texans can keep their intensity on defense up and continue to move the chains with their running game, they will have a chance to keep this Eagles offense at bay. But they will need to score points. I feel this will be a close one and I feel the over/under is way to high. Unless turnovers dominate this game, it should be well under 48.5 points.
EAGLES 23 – TEXANS 20
FANTASY BEAST – JEREMY MACLIN
Please let me get this one in writing… there is absolutely no way the Jets win this game. This is pretty much the moneyline lock of the year. The Jets are starting arguably the worst quarterback in the league this week against the number one passing defense. So yeah, the Chiefs win. The Jets have been horrible and the Chiefs have been solid. And this one is in Kansas City. The Chiefs defense will eat Vick alive in this one, even with new addition Percy Harvin getting more into the mix with this Jets offense. The Jets are solid against the run, which could slow down Charles a bit, but not too much. I can’t really see anyway the Chiefs don’t cover this one, unless they can’t get anything going on offense.
The Jets are pathetic this year and it really doesn’t matter what QB they start at this point. They are in the running for a top QB pick next season and don’t think for one second that they won’t spend their first round pick on that position. This week will only solidify their decision to do so.
CHEIFS 27 – JETS 13
FANTASY BEAST – CHIEFS DEFENSE
The Redskins really knocked the Cowboys off their horse last week. And that being said, I have never seen a player act more greedy than Tony Romo did last week. I understand he’s a competitor, but it’s really more important to be a team player. He shouldn’t have forced himself back in that game last week and handed over a victory to the Redskins. I’m not saying that they would’ve won the game if Weeden had stayed in, but they sure as hell weren’t winning that game with Romo returning. The Skins ate him alive. But back to this matchup, I don’t think Romo should be starting this week either. If he does, the Cowboys will lose again. They probably won’t win with Weeden either, but they are not winning with Romo this week. Honestly this might be the official start to the Cowboys second half failure to 8-8 for the 100th season in a row.
The Cardinals on the other hand are one of the NFL’s hottest teams. They have done nothing but win. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they are still sitting at 6-1 (their best start since 1756). Carson Palmer has finally found a way to not throw interceptions and he will need to keep it up this week while facing a surprisingly tough Dallas defense. The Cowboys strong suit this season has been the dominance of DeMarco Murray. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they have one of the best run defenses in the league. Let the Dallas losing streak officially begin.
CARDINALS 24 – COWBOYS 20
FANTASY BEAST – ANDRE ELLINGTON
Well if this is automatic win day for the Niners, I don’t know what is. They’re coming off a bye week, they smashed the Rams in St. Louis a couple weeks ago, the Rams are coming off a pride-crushing defeat in Kansas City, and they have no Jake Long. Good luck St. Louis. The 49ers really need this victory to keep them in the hunt and they won’t waste a pointless loss against the Rams at home this week. San Fran knows that they are the better team and confidence wins ballgames. The Rams will have to play the best game of their life to win this one.
Kaepernick had his best game of the season against St. Louis the last time they played and he will look to keep it going this week. The Rams have been horrible against the run which is great news for a rested Frank Gore & company. The Niners know how bad they need this win and won’t take the Rams lightly. This should be an absolute stomping and I wouldn’t want to be in a Rams uniform this week.
49ERS 31 – RAMS 10
FANTASY BEAST – COLIN KAEPERNICK
Oh wow, I can’t wait to watch this one. I think it’s hilarious, for the second year straight, that people can’t stop talking trash about the Patriots yet they still find themselves off to an awesome start (record wise). Obviously that talk has subsidized over the last couple of week with dominant performances by Brady & company, but once again the Patriots find themselves sitting in first place in the AFC East by midseason. The Broncos on the other hand are once again one of the leagues most feared teams since Peyton Manning took over as commander-in-chief and are charging into Foxboro with the utmost confidence. This will be an absolute battle.
The Patriots do not find themselves underdogs at home too often, but it does make sense this week. Overall, the Broncos are the better team, but I’m pretty sure Tom Brady doesn’t look at it that way. This is potentially the preview of the soon to come AFC Conference championship and chances are whoever wins this battle might find themselves playing in the Super Bowl. For me, this is the midseason Super Bowl.
PATRIOTS 36 – BRONCOS 34
FANTASY BEAST – TOM BRADY
Normally I would look at a 14.5 spread and immediately take the underdog, but I don’t think I can do that in this one. The Raiders are really bad and the Seahawks are trying to prove that they are really good. You can bank on the Seahawks not losing two straight at home… especially against Oakland. I think this is the week Seattle clicks on all fronts and really puts the Raiders in their place, or shall I say keep them in last place. The Seahawks are such a better team it’s not really comparable at this point, despite Seattle’s recent struggles to score points. They shouldn’t have that problem this week.
If the Raiders want to stay in this one, they need to play football like they’ve never played football before. They will need to do everything right and do nothing wrong. But let’s be honest here… that’s not going to happen. They will get crushed and Seattle will cover this massive spread.
SEAHWAKS 28 – RAIDERS 13
FANTASY BEAST – SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Is there anyone out there that doesn’t think that this one will be a battle. Obviously these two teams hate one another. The Ravens crushed the Steelers in their previous matchup, but after last week this seems to be a much different and better Pittsburgh team. If you had asked me two weeks ago who would win this game, I would’ve laughed and placed the Ravens in the win column. But as the NFL Gods switch momentum back and forth with ease, the Steelers are looking like favorites in this one, despite Vegas’s adoration for the Ravens.
Big Ben proved that he was still an elite QB in this league after murdering the Colts defense last week for any available fantasy player’s dream. If he can stay hot at home this week, the Ravens are in big trouble. The only advantage for the Ravens is that the Steelers defense can obviously be scored on. And the Ravens will have to do just that to pull this one out in an incredibly tough road game.
STEELERS 31 – RAVENS 24
FANTASY BEAST – ANTONIO BROWN
Wow, it’s a miracle! Eli Manning has apparently stopped throwing interceptions! But honestly how long do you think that will last. Against the “once” number one team against the pass until they faced a red-hot Big Ben last week in Pittsburgh. I’m willing to go out on a limb here and say Eli will not have that same success this Monday night. The Colts should be able to come in here and put plenty of points up on the board against this Giants defense, and I don’t see the Giants doing the same to the Colts. Yes, I’m sure during his bye week that Eli was licking his lips with every Big Ben passing touchdown last week against this once feared Colts passing defense, but I feel things come back down to Earth for the Colts this week.
The Giants couldn’t do anything their last time out on the field, offensively or defensively. The Colts, despite giving up record numbers to Roethlisberger, were at least able to put some points up on the board. When it come down to it, the Colts are the much better team in this matchup and should be able to prove it on the road.
COLTS 31 – GIANTS 27
FANTASY BEAST – TY HILTON
Not a bad week overall. Split against the spread but did really well with the over/under last week. I nailed my pick of the week with the over/under in the Green Bay-Carolina game and correctly picked my top three picks of the week, but lost my next two picks for my top five. Overall, 3-2 with my picks of the week. After looking at the expert picks, there are a ton of games that the pros feel are locks for one team to win. Obviously you enter in the spread and things get a little more interesting. But it seems as if it will be a good week for money line picks.
So here were my results for week seven and my total results on the season so far. It’s been a good season to this point, but all it takes is one bad week to bring everything back down to reality.
LAST WEEK
Moneyline: 10-4 (46-22-1 on the season)
ATS: 7-7 (38-30-1 on the season)
O/U: 8-5-1 (37-30-2 on the season)
(ATS & O/U) Homeruns: 4 (17 on the season)
Fantasy Beast: 9-5 (39-30 on the season)
Pick of the week: 1-0 (Over on GB/CAR)
Top 3 Picks: 3-0 (Over on GB/CAR, Over on DAL/NYG, Colts to cover)
Top 5 Picks: 3-2 (Over on GB/CAR, Over on DAL/NYG, IND to cover- Lost SEA to cover and Over on BAL/ATL)
Last week I nailed my pick of the week and my top three, but failed to pick the last two for my top five picks. These are my locks of the week for Sunday.
PICK OF THE WEEK
Houston to cover
PICK THREE
Houston to cover
Detroit to cover
Miami to cover
PICK FIVE
Houston to cover
Detroit to cover
Miami to cover
Over in the Green Bay-New Orleans game
Over in the Philadelphia-Arizona game
I really hate that we play games in London. I live in Los Angeles and will have to wake up at 6am to watch this game. The least they could do is play this game at a later time for American fans in the US. The Lions have been one of the best teams in the league so far and showcase arguably the NFL’s best defense. That’s not good news for a struggling Falcons team. The Falcons defense has been dismal, and even if Megatron and Bush don’t play in this game, the Lions shouldn’t struggle to score points.
Stafford started off slow last week, but rallied his team to win and ended up a yard shy of 300 passing yards. He should have every opportunity to get over that 300 yard mark again against a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 274 passing yards per game. Atlanta has also struggled to stop anyone on the ground which is great news for the RB’s on Detroit. The Falcons will be playing desperate football against a very tough Detroit team this week across the pond and really need a win to keep their season alive. It won’t help with their countless injuries across the offensive line going up against a vicious Lions pass defense.
LIONS 27 – FALCONS 13
FANTASY BEAST – GOLDEN TATE
For a Vikings team looking to get something going on offense, they couldn’t seek a better team to play on the road than the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs have been horrendous on defense and haven’t been able to stop anyone. They did have a much needed week off after a humiliating loss at home to the Ravens. They will also luckily face a Vikings team that has struggled offensively thus far. Both of these teams have not been able to move the ball on the offensive side of the ball, but the Vikings do possess a much better defensive unit that might be the winning factor in this one.
I don’t think anyone sees this being a high scoring game, but both teams will need to get something going on offense. Mike Glennon has been a step up over Josh McCown, but far from an elite QB. Bridgewater on the other hand has shown flashes of beastness here and there, but has played very poorly over all. Teddy couldn’t ask for a better matchup and really needs to find ways to get the ball downfield, especially to Patterson. The Bucs haven’t been able to beat anyone at home this year and that might not change this week.
VIKINGS 20 – BUCS 16
FANTASY BEAST – VIKINGS DEFENSE
Looking at the numbers, these teams match up pretty well against one another. The one stat that does stick out though is passing yards allowed by the Pats. They have given almost every QB they have played this season a tough game. Cutler has really struggled to throw the ball downfield and this is not the matchup to help that happen. The Bears really need a monster game from Matt Forte and should get it this week. The Pats have some big players missing on the defensive side of the ball and they haven’t been able to stop anyone on the ground this year regardless.
Look for the Bears to do everything they can to establish the run and dominate the time of possession. They can not afford turnovers against a team that plays excellent at home. The Pats offensively have really turned it around lately and look to finally be clicking, thanks to a healthy Gronk and a re-energized Tom Brady. The Pats had a long week off and the Bears tough a brutal loss at home last week, so we’ll see how the Bears will be able to rebound in this tough road game.
PATRIOTS 31 – BEARS 24
FANTASY BEAST – TOM BRADY
The biggest thing that stands out in this one is that the Rams have struggled to stop the run and the Chiefs run the ball very well. That should be Kansas City’s focus this week, to pound the ball on the ground, eat up the clock, and slowly bury the Rams. St. Louis also allowed Russell Wilson to torch them on the ground last week, and don’t think for one second that Alex Smith wasn’t paying attention. Smith has some wheels and will look to use them against a team that has obviously struggled to prevent QB’s from running the ball.
Despite the Rams huge win at home last week against the Seahawks, they are really stepping into a tough matchup in this one. Kansas City is the better team in this game and they always have an excellent commitment from their fans at home. The Chiefs really need this win to stay in the hunt against the Broncos and Chargers, and they will not take this Rams team lightly. If the Rams can’t find a way to slow down Charles and the Chiefs on the ground, it will be a long one for the Rams this week.
CHIEFS 27 – RAMS 16
FANTASY BEAST – JAMAAL CHARLES
I just don’t see Seattle losing three straight. They really came on strong in the second half in a tough road loss to the Rams. The Panthers on the other hand got demolished against the Packers. Cam has yet to have a solid performance against the Seahawks so far in his career, but it will get a little easier considering that Seattle has somewhat struggled defensively this season. The biggest thing that stands out in this one is that the Seahawks have been able to move the chains on the ground and the Panthers have struggled to stop the run. Look for Seattle to keep that ground game going.
The Panthers will really need everything for them to click this Sunday to win this tough home game. Cam will really need to carry this team on his shoulders this week considering that the Panthers are really hurting in the RB position. Cam is the leading rusher for the Panthers this year.
SEAHAWKS 27 – PANTHERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – MARSHAWN LYNCH
This should be an absolute defensive battle, as both teams mirror one another statistically on that side of the ball. Both teams have struggled offensively, but the Jets will hope the addition of Percy Harvin will help them get over that hump. The Bills just lost both starting RB’s, Spiller and Jackson, and will turn to Brown and Dixon to carry the load. They will both face a tough matchup against an excellent Jets run defense.
The Bills will look to exploit the Jets suspect pass defense with their rookie stud Sammy Watkins. Orton has been playing well and is well aware of the talent he has in Watkins. Look for the Bills to get the ball to Sammy as much as possible. This will be a game of turnovers, and the Jets will need Geno Smith to prevent himself from making poor decisions. The Jets really need a win to prevent losing seven straight, but the Bills are looking to build off of their solid start.
BILLS 20 – JETS 17
FANTASY BEAST – SAMMY WATKINS
Statistically, the Dolphins completely shred the Jags in this one. The Jaguars were able to win their first game of the season quite convincingly last week against the Browns. Miami on the other hand went into Chicago and shut them down. There will be plenty of Dolphins fans in Jacksonville this week and it will be as close to a home game on the road that they will be able to find. The biggest loss for the Jags this week comes on the defensive side of the ball with the loss of LB Paul Posluszny for the season, their leading tackler. That’s great news for Lamar Miller.
Ryan Tannehill has been playing excellent football as of late and will look to keep it going against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Dolphins should be able to get it done on the ground and in the air against this porous Jags defense, though Jacksonville did play much better defensively last week against the Browns. The Dolphins though will be much harder to stop and have been playing good football as of late.
DOLPHINS 27 – JAGUARS 13
FANTASY BEAST – RYAN TANNEHILL
Probably the last two guys in the world that you would want to face off against in your rookie starting debut would be J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. Zach Mettenberger will unfortunately face both this weekend in Tennessee. The Texans completely blew the game last Monday night against the Steelers and should look to rebound strongly against a Titans team coming off against a loss to the Redskins. Houston has struggled this season to stop the pass, but luckily they find themselves facing off against a 6th round rookie QB.
The Titans are really throwing it all in right now in hopes that a sixth round draft pick can save their season. Unless Mettenberger comes out and displays the characteristics of a future franchise QB, the Titans will be luck to win four games this season. Everything in this game points to the Texans pulling this one out, as long as they don’t give this one away as well.
TEXANS 24 – TITANS 13
FANTASY BEAST – ARIAN FOSTER
The Ravens statistically outmatch the Bengals in almost every category this season. These are two much different teams than what we saw week one, when Cincy went to Baltimore and came away with a convincing win. The Ravens will look to return the favor this week in Ohio. The Ravens have been playing lights out lately and will look to really stick it to this struggling Bengals squad. Cincy needs A.J. Green now more than ever, but this toe injury looks to keep him out of action again this week. Good news for the Ravens, not good news for the Bengals.
What Cincinnati does well is prevent deep passes downfield. The Ravens will keep that in mind and attempt to keep it short. The Bengals will need to find ways to score on this Ravens defense, who are excellent against the run. These two teams have a long history of battles, and this game should be no different. The Bengals are looking to rebound back to the status of where they were to the season as the Ravens will seek to remain one of the NFL’s best teams.
RAVENS 24 – BENGALS 20
FANTASY BEAST – RAVENS DEFENSE
The Eagles will need to be successful in the passing game and all of the pressure is falling on the arm of Nick Foles in this one. The Cards are absolutely brutal to run against, and outside of an outstanding effort against the Giants in their last game, Shady McCoy has not looked as explosive as he has in the past. This will not be an easy matchup for him, so look for the Eagles to attempt to get the passing game going early.
As for the Cards, the Eagles defense has been up and down this year, but they have been able to create turnovers in key situations. The Cards do an excellent job of limiting turnovers, especially with Carson Palmer at the helm. Though Palmer has been an INT machine in the past, he has only one interception so far this season. He will have to keep that success going against this ball hawking Eagles defense. This will be an interesting game to watch between this battle of 5-1 squads. Could be a lot of points in this one.
EAGLES 30 – CARDINALS 27
FANTASY BEAST – NICK FOLES
The Colts have really put it together on both sides of the ball recently and will look to keep it going against a mysterious Pittsburgh football team. The Colts defense has been lights out lately and the Steelers will struggle to get it going against this high-energy unit. Pittsburgh probably shouldn’t have won last week against the Texans, while the Colts on the other hand completely dominated all facets of the game against the Bengals.
The Steelers will really need to find a way to stop Andrew Luck. The Colts have turned the ball over this season a lot more than they would’ve like to, but they have been able to rebound from those mistakes and post a solid 5-2 record. The Steelers would love to win this one at home and establish some sort of identity to compete with the Ravens and the Bengals in this division.
COLTS 27 – STEELERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – ANDREW LUCK
Well the Raiders will look to do exactly what the Jags did last week against the Browns… get their first win. The Raiders statistically have a better defense, slightly, than the Browns do, except for the fact that they allow more points per game. Alex Mack going down is really going to hurt this Browns running game, but they are going against a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 145 yards on the ground. The Browns have actually been worst against the run, and with the slight emergence of Run DMC, the Raiders should look to exploit that weakness of Cleveland.
If the Browns are not winning this game by the half, or at least in this game, we might see our first glimpse of Johnny Football in regular season action. The Browns will not allow themselves to lose this game to the Raiders at home without giving Manziel a shot to help them win. There’s a ton of pressure on Brian Hoyer right now to keep the rookie off the field and he will have to prove that he is the starting QB for the Browns, or otherwise Johnny will get his shot against the winless Raiders.
BROWNS 24 – RAIDERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – BEN TATE
I guess the one thing that stands out the most in this matchup is that Aaron Rodgers has been playing beyond beast as of late and the Saints can not stop anyone from passing the ball. The Saints do post an awesome average of 314 yards in the air this year, but the Packers have been excellent against the pass thus far. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run, but the Saints will not have Thomas or Robinson this week and a Mark Ingram attempting to get back to the level he was playing at before his injury.
As the Vegas spread has it, there should be a lot of points in this one. This could easily be a back and forth touchdown battle between these two teams, especially considering who is behind center for both of these ball teams. The Packers will have to keep it rolling in a very intense environment as the Saints will look to stay alive in their division with a big win at home this week. Should be a really fun Sunday night game to watch.
PACKERS 34 – SAINTS 30
FANTASY BEAST – AARON RODGERS
Well it’s no secret that these two teams absolutely hate one another. In years where the Redskins were obviously the better team, Dallas found a way to pull off the win. The Redskins have done the same to Dallas when the shoe was on the other foot, as it is in this matchup. Dallas is obviously playing the best football they have played since they were winning Super Bowls. Murray has been lights out and that has obviously taken a ton of pressure off of Romo to put points up on the board. This Dallas defense, projected by many to be one of the worst in the league this season, has stepped up tremendously and will face journeyman Colt McCoy and a struggling Washington offense.
Defensively these two teams match up comparatively outside of the fact that the Redskins have allowed a lot more points. The Redskins under the Kirk Cousins regime turned the ball over more than any team ever in the NFL I believe. McCoy will look to build off of a successful relief effort last week and keep the Skins alive in this epic rivalry before RG3 is ready to return. When observing everything this season as a whole, the Cowboys should smash the Skins at home on Monday night, but the Redskins will always give their best effort against the Cowboys.
COWBOYS 27 – REDSKINS 17
FANTASY BEAST – TERRANCE WILLIAMS
Last week was the first time I fell below .500 this season. There were a couple games that really threw me off. The Giants were looking really strong until they met Philly last week. The new coaching change in Oakland obviously helped them play a little harder. The Skins really need RG3 to come back as Kirk Cousins proved that he is not the answer and capable of multiple interceptions in a matter of minutes. I’m not sure what happened to the Bengals defense and maybe the Cowboys are legit.
The Jags came pretty close to winning their first game, but came up short but once again. At least it wasn't a 30 point loss this time. They play the Browns at home this week and should play their balls off to pull this one out. The Skins are pretty much done, but if you know the pride in Washington, there’s a good chance they could pound the Titans at home this week. Overall, I came short on the ATS, but overall for the year I’m doing okay. Tomorrow is my birthday, so hopefully I can come up on top this week. BTW the Irish got robbed against Florida State… Just saying…
LAST WEEK
Moneyline: 8-5-1 (36-18-1 on the season)
ATS: 6-7-1 (31-23-1 on the season)
O/U: 7-7 (29-25-1 on the season)
Homeruns: 3 (13 on the season)
Fantasy Beast: 5 – 9 (30-25 on the season)
The Bengals have fallen apart. The Colts have really come together. This one comes down to home field advantage. The Indy fans are awesome and will have this place rocking tomorrow. The Bengals will need to come into town and roll with the same intensity they had week one. If they don’t, this in automatic win day for the Colts. Not sure what happened to this Bengals defense, but they better get it together.
I really feel that this is the part of the season where the Colts bring it together and start nuking teams. They have all of the ingredients and this is a big game. Which means that the Bengals will most likely blow it, as they do most big games. I think the Colts get it done in fashion and the Bengals return to Cincy attempting to figure out whether they are really contenders.
COLTS 31 – BENGALS 20
FANTASY BEAST – ANDREW LUCK
This has big win for the Redskins all over it. Skins fans are pissed. The Titans are not that good. Neither are the Redskins, but they should smoke the Titans this week. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening. The Redskins should win this one to the likes of 30-21, but this could be a 24-23 ballgame. If Cousins struggles, we could see Colt McCoy in action in the 3rd if the Skins don’t show up to play. Colt McCoy equals a top five pick for the Skins next season.
The Redskins really should win this game. Home game against a team that they can definitely beat. Statistically the Skins are the much better team and they’re at home. So for those reasons and those reasons alone, I will take the Skins, but I doubt they will cover this one. It seems they can make the easier games even tougher than the more competitive ones. The only thing that gives me hope in this one is what the Skins were able to do against the Jags. Not sure I see that happening this week.
REDSKINS 24 – TITANS 23
FANTASY BEAST – ALFRED MORRIS
The Bears really need this win. We’ll see if Philbon has the inside scoop against Cutler and the Bears, but if they don’t they will most likely have a rough week. I don’t see a blowout here, the Dolphins are a good team and I think this one will be close. The Bears have the talent to put this one away, but I see the Phins being pretty scrappy in this one.
As long as Cutler does not self-destruct, the Bears should get it done at home. Miami will stick around in this one and I see this game going down to late in the fourth. Forte is the key to this Bears victory and Wallace will need to get open to keep Miami close in this one. I just think that this will come down to Cutler outplaying Tannehill, which I do believe will happen.
BEARS 27 – DOLPHINS 23
FANTASY BEASY – JAY CUTLER
The Browns have been stepping it up lately bit the Jags are still seeking that first win. The Browns are really looking to make a stand that they are a team to beat and will have to use this Jags game to prove it. The Jags will show up to play, but let’s be honest when we look at who is the better team in this one. The Browns have been playing good football when they have to, but this is also the kind of game they blow.
Just when you thought that the Jags were the team that couldn’t cover a spread, they were able to do so last week. And they could again this week. The Browns are not a top notch squad and the Jags are going after that first win. So I don’t think this is the week they pull it off, though they could, but I can see them covering once again this week.
BROWNS 23- JAGUARS 20
FANTASY BEAST – BEN TATE
So Percy was too big of a distraction for the Hawks. I guess they really didn’t need him and we’ll see if eliminating him from the locker room can help the Seahawks out. The Rams are really not a good team and I’m sure Seattle is quite upset at losing that game at home against the Cowboys. Sounds like a big win on the road for the Hawks in this one.
Can the Rams establish the run against the Hawks? No. Will they be able to pass? No. Will the Seahawks be able to run? Yes. Will they be able to pass? Most likely. Can Wilson run all over the Rams? Yes. Will the Seahawks beat the rams and cover? Yes.
SEAHAWKS 30 – RAMS 17
FANTASY BEAST – RUSSELL WILSON
The Panthers are really attempting to find their identity. They can obviously score. The Packers are having their issues on defense and will really need to get to Cam to slow this Panthers offense down. The Packers have been playing lights out lately and the Panthers defense has not been what they were last year. Rodgers should have no problem putting points on the board.
The Packers should be able to put some points on the board, but so should the Panthers. This one has over written all over it. I think this might just be a Rodgers-Newton showdown with the Packers come out on top in the end. I’m not sure if the Packers can cover if it’s a close one obviously, but this could also be a Packers blowout. I think I’ll stick with the over in this one.
PACKERS 38 – PANTHERS 30
FANTASY BEAST – JORDY NELSON
This is my pick of the week. The Ravens have been playing like a Super Bowl team lately and Joe Flacco proved his contract last week in the first half against the Bucs. The Falcons have been a huge identity question mark and need to prove that they are still a team to beat this week. Unfortunately they have to go into Baltimore to prove it.
The Ravens should smash on the Falcons this week. The Falcons will do their best to come back and make it a game, but they haven’t showed me what it takes to compete on the road so far and I’m expecting a big Ravens win. I think the Ravens get it done at home and the Falcons hit the road scratching their head about how to save their season.
RAVENS 33 – FALCONS 24
FATANSY BEAST – JOE FLACCO
The Vikings are a real mess right now. Rookie Qb, no AP, can’t find a way to get their best playmaker the ball. The Bills on the other hand have been really scrappy. They played the Pats really well and took that lose really hard. The AFC East is still up for grabs and I think the Bills believe that they have a legitimate chance to compete. That being said, I just don’t see them allowing the Vikings to come into their house and take them down.
The Vikings are on the verge of being a really bad and beatable team. They need to start gelling on multiple levels, and unless this is the week that happens, they will take a hard loss to the Bills on the road. Until they can find a way to get Patterson involved and open in this offense, they will continue to struggle. Sorry Norv.
BILLS 27 – VIKINGS 17
FANTASY BEAST – SAMMY WATKINS
The Saints are another team that really needs to discover their identity. Playing without Jimmy Graham will not help them find that. The Lions have been playing tough and should be able to come away with this victory, but they will need Stafford to get it done. Both teams are without their top offensive weapons this week, so look for both offenses to struggle to move the ball.
These teams like to pass, and don’t think for one second that Brees and Stafford won’t attempt to air it out because they are missing two of their aces. Both teams will struggle to move the ball on the ground, so expect a passing turf game. This one should come down to the last drive, and I see Brees as the one attempting a come from behind drive. Brees can always get it done and could pull this one out on the road, but I have to go with the home team in the win.
LIONS 27 – SAINTS 24
FANTASY BEAST – GOLDEN TATE
The Chargers are tough to beat at home and the Chiefs will not be taken lightly. Kansas City will show up to play and this game will go back and forth. This will come down to which defense can get it done and create turnovers. Don’t forget that these teams hate each other almost as much as the Chargers hate the Raiders, so expect a battle in this one. San Diego has the potential to make this a blowout, but it won’t be that easy.
The Chiefs need a win bad. Not saying that the Chargers can afford a loss, but it comes down to who needs this one more. I don’t think that there is any doubt that this one will come down to the fourth and should be a game decided by a field goals. But I do believe the Chargers will pull this one out at home.
CHARGERS 23 – CHIEFS 20
FANTASY BEAST - BRANDON OLIVER
The Giants have been known to come into Dallas and punch them in the face. But the Giants are such a confusing team to figure out right now. So are they the team that spanked the Redskins, or are they the team that got stomped by the Eagles. The Cowboys on the other hand have been stepping up above and beyond their competition and really making a stand for themselves as the NFL’s top team. Wow. Didn’t see that coming.
The Giants can always beat the Cowboys. Obviously the Cowboys are the better team right now. If the Cowboys want to prove that they are a team to beat in the NFL this year, convincingly beating the Giants at home would help prove that. But don’t think for one second that the Giants are going to come in here and roll over. They know the Cowboys well, but they also knew the Eagles well and got completely shutdown. Don’t think the Coyboys didn’t take notice. I don’t believe that Dallas is as good as advertised, but the Giants have yet to prove that they are either, so roll with the home team in this one. Could be a shootout.
COWBOYS 31 – GIANTS 28
FANTASY BEAST – DEMARCO MURRAY
I like what I see in David Carr. They obviously played tougher after the coaching change. The only problem is that the GM built this team to be 8-8 at best. Yes they cleared up a ton of cap space, but they did not build a team that is competitive. The Cardinals on the other hand do have a competitive team and really need this road win. They know that they are the better team than the Raiders, but they will need to prove it. The Raiders are a tough home team and proved it last week against San Diego.
But are the Raiders good enough to beat the Cards this week? I could definitely see them doing it, but I don’t think that there is any doubt that Arizona is the all-around better squad. This one will be close, don’t question that for a second. I like Carr and feel that he is a winner. I see a lot of Favre in this kid in the sense that he will go for the gold. That’s what makes QB’s the best. They have to obtain that confidence and Carr has it. But does he have enough to beat the Cards this week? Not sure, but I think that he’ll at least cover if not win at home for these desperate Raiders fans.
CARDINALS 23 – RAIDERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – ANDRE ELLINGTON
The Broncos should win this game. But you never know which 49ers teams is going to show up. This could have been the Super Bowl last year and I think the Niners would have won. But this is a new season and Denver has shown no signs of slowing down. San Fran on the other hand hasn’t looked quite the same as last year. But they do have a formidable defense that will look to slow Peyton down. But as we’ve seen over the years, that’s much easier said than done.
This is a big spread against a good team. But Denver is at home and could lay it on the Niners in this one. Kaepernick will really have to have not only a solid game, but a great game in this one. But it really comes down to whether or not the Niners can slow down this Broncos offense. I’m just not sure that they can. I do like the over in this one.
BRONCOS 30 – 49ERS 23
FANTASY BEAST – PEYTON MANNING
I really think that this one comes down to whether or not the Texans will be able to slow down Antonio Brown. The Texans have been having a horrific time stopping the pass, which is great news for Big Ben and Brown. The Steelers have been one of the sketchiest teams in the league this year. The Texans have proved that they will play tough every down. But on Monday night, you can bank on one thing for sure, these Pittsburgh fans will be ready to go.
This is a tough environment for Houston to step into, but the Steelers have proved to be a beatable team. These defenses could show up early and slow this game down a bit, but it should open up in the second half. Houston will have to score points to win this one, but they will need big games from their playmakers to do so. This will be a battle, the Texans will not lay down and the Steelers have proved that they can’t shut anybody out. This is a game that the Steelers should win, but it won’t be easy.
STEELERS 24 – TEXANS 23
FANTASY BEAST – ANTONIO BROWN
This is the first week that I am doing this. I will pick one lock, three games, and five games to go along with my week seven picks. I never touch the Thursday night game and neither should you (the Jets covering in New England is proof enough).
PICK OF THE WEEK:
Over in the Packers – Panthers game
PICK THREE
Packers-Panthers Over
Cowboys-Giants Over
Colts to cover
PICK FIVE
Packers-Panthers Over
Cowboys-Giants Over
Colts to cover
Seahawks to cover
Ravens-Falcons Over
I definitely learned some things about some teams last week. Especially that Sunday night game between the Pats & Bengals. New England showcased the dynasty squad. That’s what a dynasty team can do to you. Monday night, everyone is doubting if they have anything left, and they pound you at home. I’m sure John Elway experienced the feeling many times before winning those last two Super Bowls.
The Pats proved that they are capable of doing it again with a performance like that against the only undefeated team left in the league. For Cinci it definitely again raised questions of whether or not they can be a prime time team. I luckily nailed the exact scores in the Cowboys and Seahawks win, and did really well hitting the over under last week. Here’s the results so far.
Moneyline: 11-3 (28-13 on the season)
AST: 8-6 (25-16 on the season)
O/U: 9-5 (22-18-1 on the season)
Homeruns: 4 (10 on the season)
Fantasy Beasts: 7-7 (25-16 on the season)
The Jags are still looking for that first win, so you have to be weary about teams like that come mid-season. The Titans are on the verge of becoming an early draft pick contender unless they can really turn it around. No better time than playing the Jags on your own turf.
This will be a dog fight. The Titans could definitely, sand should definitely pull away in this game, but the Jags better bring everything they have to make it a game. Statistically, everyone is better than the Jags, so you have to give the auto win to the Titans. Let me put it like this, if the Titans lose at home to the Jags on Sunday, the Tennessee fans will not take to that likely. It will be a miserable Monday in Nashville. I don’t think the Titans want to deal with that. But don’t be surprised if they do.
TITANS 26 – JAGS 24
FANTASY BEAST – BISHOP SANKEY (He burned me last week, but this should be his best opportunity)
So far this season, there is not really a better away stadium to play at than Tampa Bay. The Ravens are getting a sweet road spread this week as they encounter one of the worst defenses in the NFL, if not the worst. The Bucs have showed some teeth with Mike Glennon at the healm, but he will face a very tough Ravens defense. But the Ravens do need to focus on the Bucs instead of those Tampa strip clubs.
Tampa has been playing tough, but let’s be honest here. The Ravens will win this game and they should do it by more than 3 points. Obviously the home team will always put up a fight, but this won’t be like Cincy coming into Foxboro. The Ravens have a very comfortable play to win here and should do so. The Bucs have been scrappy, but the Ravens invented the new age scrappy.
RAVENS 27 – BUCS 20
FANTASY BEAST – JOE FLACCO
Well I guess we all know just how bad the Jets are. Any time you are almost ten point dogs at home and that considered a relatively generous spread, you are in trouble. The Jets are a mess. Times a thousand. Rex Ryan will be up his players asses this week to get them prepared to play this game, but Peyton does that on the reg. And that’s why Denver will win.
Obviously this spread scares the shit out of me, but the Broncos should at least win by a TD and a FG, if not a lot more. Peyton should have no problem with this Jets secondary, and that alone should be confidence enough for Denver to cover this spread. Rex will do everything he can think of to slow down Manning, but he’s created such a mess in New York that I don’t see working out to well for them this week. Once again, the Jets lose in a mess.
BRONCOS 42 – JETS 17
FANTASY BEASTS – MANNING-THOMAS-THOMAS
Field goal kicker? Anybody? Prater, but down that hooker’s boob with the blow on it and start kicking field goals for the Lions. Wow. Hard to pick the Lions as one point favorites when they have nobody kicking the ball for them. And I have the biggest question for the Viks… Uhm… There’s this guy on your team… Corderelle Patterson… yeah… that guy. Well, how can I say this… Considering that you no longer have AP, uhm, well, JUST GIVE THE GOD DAMN BALL TO CORDERELLE PATTERSON!
The best athlete on your roster had negative three touches last week. I don’t care if the entire defense knows that the kid is getting the ball, you have to put it in his hands in order for you to win the game. I always look at this situation like this: If you’re playing basketball and the other squad is double teaming your best player, like LaBron, Jordan or Shaq, which happened in almost every game of their careers, would you still not get them the ball? Of course you would! And so should the Vikings with Patterson. I don’t care if you have to give the kid direct snaps, you give him every possible chance to win the ball game. But for some reason Norv does not. That’s why Norv does not win.
LIONS 27 – VIKINGS 20
FANTASY BEAST – GOLDEN TATE
Division rivals does not describe this matchup. It’s not Redskins-Cowboys, but it’s up there. You can bank on the fact that the Bills will show up to play for this one. And so will their fans. It will be a mad house. And Brady has some suspect ankle injury. The Pats know how important this win on the road is. They will be ready to go, especially after that big win against Cincy. But they couldn’t be walking into a more hostile environment at the moment.
I do think the Bills can win this game. I also think that the Pats can win this game. It will be a battle. The Pats, just by dynasty standing alone, should blow out the Bills this week. But as trap status goes, the Bills are the way to go. I just worry that Revis welcoming Sammy Watkins to the league will really hinder the Bills success in the air. I think the Pats will win, but I think the Bills could do the same, so I’ll take the Bills to cover this one in a battle. Otherwise the Pats will win 42-17 again.
PATS 23 – BILLS 21
FANTASY BEASTS – FRED JACKSON & CJ SPILLER
I really would not want to play the Bengals at home right now. Coming off a massive whomping against the Pats on the road and at home against a team that is suspect to say the least. If the Bengals hadn’t of gotten manhandled by the Pats last week, this would be a ten point spread. It still should be. The Panthers are not on the top of their game and the Bengals are pound for pound the better fighter in this match. That being said, the Panthers will not lay down in this one.
For some reason this one has 27-20 written all over it. The Bengals defense I’m sure took a nuker this week at practice for that pounding they took last Sunday night. The Panthers will also be walking into a very hostile environment with thousands of Who Deh fans thirsting for a big win. And they will get it, but I think the Panthers will stick in there. This one will come down to the fourth quarter unless the Panthers completely self-destruct.
BENGALS 27 – PANTHERS 20
FANTASY BEAST – MOHAMED SANU
Just the pure fact that the Browns are favored in this one pisses of the Steelers. Hoyer has been stepping it up lately, but the Browns were dead in the water last week against the Titans and will have their hands full with the Steelers this week in Cleveland. This was a complete battle week one and should be again. But I have to think that the Steelers can come into Cleveland and beat the Brownies this week. The Browns haven’t really been able to stop the run and the Steelers LEhave a great backfield. I think that’s the edge in this one.
The Steelers have a chance to really put themselves into the players club this week with a big win against the Browns. The Browns have a chance to have a winning record and feel positive about where their season is going. I think what comes down in this one is that the Steelers are the better team overall and should win this one on the road. It will be close, the Browns will fight tooth and nail, but when all said and done, the Steelers win in a close one.
STEELERS 31 – BROWNS 27
FANTASY BEAST – LE’VEON BELL
Similar to the Ravens game, the Packers also have a nice little Florida vacation on the road in October to play a team they should be. Once again, same spread. Once again, awesome strip clubs in Miami. Philbon obviously know Rodgers & Co. well, so he does have an edge there. He also pissed of Tannehill who is impressing me with his tenacity. But when I look at these two teams, the Packers just seem like they are so much better. The Phins are coming off a bye week, but is that really a good thing?
Hopefully for Miami, maybe Philbon knows something that bothers Rodgers in some fashion. Maybe knows his weaknesses against certain blitz packages. Well as far as Miami is concerned, they better hope so. The Packers should come into Miami and stomp them just like the Chiefs did. For Miami’s sake, I hope they put up a fight, but I just think in the long run the Pack pulls this one out. One last thing, the Packers suck against the run and Knowshon Moreno might be back.
PACKERS 31 – DOLPHINS 26
FANTASY BEAST – AARON RODGERS
Yes they are division rivals. This is a hatred game where the Raiders will do their best to hold their own at home. But, the Chargers are the much better team, hence the generous seven point spread. San Diego could easily cruise up to Oakland and smoke the Raiders in this one. You know it, I know it, Oakland is in complete disarray right now… This has road blow out written all over it. But some underdog road team has to win this week, right?
Well, it’s not going to be the Raiders. Not against the Chargers. Rivers is on fire right now and there is nobody on this Oakland defense that will be able to stop him. The Chargers statistically outmatch the Raiders by a ton in this matchup and there is a chance that they completely destroy the Raiders at home this week. The Raiders have been really getting bagged lately, and sometimes that is not going to push them in the right direction. I could be wrong here and the Raiders might show up to play, but I think the Chargers are going to completely manhandle the Raiders off the charts in this one. Maybe the Raiders make a last minute surge, but not enough to cover seven.
CHARGERS 30 – RAIDERS 17
FANTASY BEAST – PHILIP RIVERS
This is going to be a complete mess. Who knows who will win this one. I could see the Falcons blowing the Bears out 42-17 in this one. I could also see the Bears showing up and winning 27-23. Basically what I’m saying is that you probably shouldn’t bet on this one. These two teams match up very well against one another and have very similar attributes. The advantage goes to the Bears running game that features Matt Forte. If the Falcons can not stop Forte, they are in trouble.
And now let’s get into the Brandon Marshall conversation. Nobody on the Falcons can cover a healthy Brandon Marshall. But, he has been far from healthy lately and is not 100%. But who is 100% is Julio Jones. The Bears definitely have nobody that can stop him, so that at least justifies the three point spread. This has shoot out written all over it and the over can’t be high enough.
FALCONS 34 – BEARS 30
FANTASY BEAST – JULIO JONES
Oh, have I been waiting for this game. I’m a Skins fan, so I hate the Cowboys obviously. Also by being a Skins fan I was accurately able to predict the final score of our beat down by the Seahawks. The other game I nailed was the Cowboys winning against the Texans. So obviously I know my Skins and my Boys. So that being said, the Cowboys don’t stand a chance this week against Seattle.
Not that it even needs to be mentioned, but the Seahawks are great at home. What does need to be said is that the Cowboys are playing much better than expected. And they are getting a huge spread on the road in this one, considering their record. But that is because the Seahawks are really the much better team in this one, regardless of record, and by a lot. I could see this one going back and forth for sure, possibly with the Cowboys covering and making it a close one, but I have to give the edge to the Seahawks in this one. But just because the Cowboys have been playing such great football lately, I want to say that they will beat this spread.
SEAHAWKS 24 – COWBOYS 20
FANTASY BEAST – MARSHAWN LYNCH
Okay, let me get this straight… The Cards have yet to officially announce their starting QB, yet the over-under is at 50.5? The Redskins defense is not that bad. And the Cards defense is pretty stellar. Does anyone see the moneyball in this one? Take the under. This will be a defensive battle. The only thing that could nuke the under in this one is a pick six or fumble recovery for a TD.
The Redskins could easily pull this one out on the road. This will not be a Cards blowout I promise you that. Arizona will give Kirk Cousins a fantastically difficult time moving the chains and the Redskins defense will punish Logan if he enters the game. This will not be a high scoring game and I laugh at that over-under. This is the bet of the week in this 17-13 ball game.
REDSKINS 17 – CARDS 13
FANTASY BEAST – REDSKINS DEFENSE
The Giants and the Pats have a lot in common. They are dynasty teams. They have the ability to kick your ass whenever they get rolling. And the Giants are rolling right now. But they have to test their fate against Philly in this NFC slug match. This should be an ugly game. One of those “Who knows what the hell will happen games?” As a Skins fan I know these teams very well and I know that they will be beating the absolute piss out of one another.
As far as the spread, this game could go either way, so you have to take the Giants. The Eagles are getting the three points because they are at home, but the Giants could easily come in to Philly and make this a close game. They could also get blown out, don’t second guess that for one second. But, to make a call, the Giants at least cover and could win this one in a close NFC East battle.
GIANTS 31 – EAGLES 30
FANTASY BEAST – ELI MANNING
It’s Monday night, so you know that the Niners will show up to play. The Rams are in yet another rebuilding situation and the Niners are looking to reestablish them selves as the team to beat in the NFC. The Rams are banged up, Stacy is not 100%, and the offense is far from scary. The Niners on the other hand can run the ball and the Rams haven’t exactly been lights out against the run.
This is yet another trap road game where we have a much better team coming to town to play an inferior opponent. Jeff will always have the Rams playing tough, I’m just not sure if they can play tough enough to defeat this superior squad that San Fran is bring into town. The Rams will need to pull all of the tricks out of the bag to win this one and hopefully have a couple turnovers fall into their favor, but I just don’t see the Niners losing this one on the road.
49ERS 27 – RAMS – 17
FANTASY BEAST – FRANK GORE
So far I’ve been doing pretty good ATS after weeks three and four (15-10). But that percentage is not likely to hold up for the remainder of the season (if it does I’m moving to Vegas). 17 points seemed to be the lucky number for losers this week, with five teams only scoring 17 points in a losing effort. Wow the Jaguars are really bad. And the Patriots don’t look much better. The Saints should be in absolute panic mode right now. The Raiders rightfully fired their coach, but they should also fire their GM as well. The Panthers are not the team they were last year. And who really knows what to expect from the Giants, Bears, Steelers, Vikings, Cowboys, Dolphins, or 49ers. All of those teams seem so unpredictable week to week. But overall, it wasn’t a bad week for me and I’ve been pretty good at picking the fantasy beast (a player with a solid fantasy performance) and ATS. We’ll see if I can keep it going for this week.
Moneyline: 7-5 (17-10 on the season)
AST: 7-4-1 (15-10-2 on the season)
O/U - 6-6 (13-13-1 on the season)
Homeruns: 2 (6 on the season)
Fantasy Beasts: 8-4 (18-9 on the season)
The Panthers have really fallen off this season, especially that defense. But the Bears D hasn’t been much better. The Bears have won both of their road games this season and I see them pulling this one out as well. These teams actually match up quite well against one another and both teams are coming off of devastating losses. I think what it comes down to is that the Bears just have more weapons on offense. The Panthers are going to need a great game from Cam to compete in this one. Carolina gives up a ton of yards on the ground, so this could be a great week for Forte to get back on track. The Panthers haven’t beaten the Bears since 2008, but the last two matches were pretty close. I could see this game repeating what happened in October of 2012, when the Bears won 23-22. This is an important game for both teams, as one of these ball clubs will walk away from this game with a losing record. It’s still early in the season, but 3-2 just looks and feels so much better than 2-3. Expect a battle here, and this one could obviously go either way, but I like Chicago in a close one on the road.
BEARS 24 - PANTHERS 21
FANTASY BEAST - MATT FORTE
I can’t really tell what is worse? The Titans offense or the Browns defense. It looks as if Bishop Sankey has improved his foot work enough to get more carries this week. Sankey has a chance to really put it on the Browns on the ground, who give up an average of 154 rushing yards. This could be Sankey’s week to really run a away with the job. Brian Hoyer has been efficient enough to keep Johnny Eightball off of the field so far this season, but this will be a tough week to get it going against a pretty solid Titans secondary. Ben Tate should be ready to go this week, but it seems like he is far from 100%. The Browns could really use him, but West and Crowell have been doing a pretty decent job filling in for Tate. The Titans haven’t exactly been lights out against the run, so look for the Browns to pound the rock as well. Jake Locker should be a go this week and the Browns have also struggled against the pass allowing 272 yards in the air on average. The Titans will need a solid performance from Locker in this one to really take control of this one. The Browns are a scrappy team and they have every opportunity this week to get back to .500 ball playing one of the worst teams in the league in Tennessee. The Browns are also coming off of a bye and the Titans are coming off of a complete beat down, so for that reason I like the Browns to win this one on the road.
BROWNS 27 - TITANS 20
FANTASY BEAST - BISHOP SANKEY
This game has trap all over it. The spread opened at -8.5 and now has crept down to 6.5. This might be because statistically, the Rams are actually better on paper (but not in the standings obviously). But check this out. This Rams offense with Austin Davis behind center is currently tied with the Eagles in yards per game this season at 368 (though the Eagles are averaging 30.5 points per game compared to the Rams 18.7). And then when you look at the defensive side of the ball, the Rams allow less total yards per game (342 to 391), but do allow more average points (28.3 to the Eagles 26). The Rams have held opposing QB’s to an average of 187 passing yards per game, but why would you attempt to pass against the rams when they are allowing an average of 155 on the ground (thanks to DeMarco Murray). This should be the game where anyone that traded LeSean McCoy this week will be punching themselves in the face. McCoy should use this opportunity to explode. This could also be a solid week for Darren Sproles as well. The Eagles should pound the ball and exploit that suspect run defense all day long. The Rams will really need to fight to pull off the upset in this one, but I just don’t see it happening. But the Rams could cover if they can somewhat limit the Eagles rushing attack.
EAGLES 30 - RAMS 24
FANTASY BEAST - LESEAN MCCOY
The Falcons have not been good on the road this season. The Giants have really turned it around and looked excellent on the road against Washington. Now they get to come home and play against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Falcons have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and have also allowed an average of 430 total yards a game (including 276 passing yards per game). This is great news for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Larry Donnell. The Falcons have been even worse against the run, allowing 154 rushing yards per game. Expect the Giants to feed Rashad Jennings the ball after giving him a rest last week. The Giants have been beatable in the air, so Matt Ryan will have to air it out this week on the road to beat the Giants. Atlanta is averaging 322 yards in the air and the Falcons will need to move the chains by throwing the ball because the Giants have been tough against the run. Nobody has really found a way to slow down Julio Jones, so it would be in the Falcons best interests to keep sending the ball in his direction. This has the potential to be a very high scoring game and I expect a shoot out between Ryan and Manning with the G-Men ultimately coming out on top. The Giants are just playing better football right now, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Falcons pulled off the upset.
GIANTS 31 - FALCONS 24
FANTASY BEAST - RASHAD JENNINGS ( I wanted to pick Julio, but I feel that’s almost too easy)
That’s an awfully large spread for a team that just got crushed last week against Dallas and playing a team that looked pretty darn good on the road. Yes, the Saints should beat the Bucs by double digits at home this week, but they have not looked good this season. But then again, neither have the Bucs. But with Tampa Bay’s come from behind victory last week against the Steelers should give them some momentum coming into this week. The Saints on the other hand really need a big win, but this could turn out to be a difficult matchup for them. Since 2001, the Saints are 14-11 against the Bucs (but obviously the Saints have been the much better team during that duration). So that should show that this is not a guaranteed win for the Saints. But, and this is a huge but, the Saints have beaten the Bucs 110 to 33 in the last three games played in New Orleans. The last two games in the dome against Tampa Bay were 42 to 17 and 41 to 0. Both defenses are playing really bad this year, but the biggest difference between these two teams is the yards in the air. The Saints are averaging 295 passing yards per game (thanks to Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham), and the Bucs are only averaging 194. Now I definitely expect Mike Glennon to throw for more than 200 yards this week, especially if they are playing catchup, but I don’t see him doing enough to take down Brees. This is a huge spread, but unless the Bucs can get their ground game going and keep Brees off of the field, the Saints could definitely put some points up on the board against a very suspect Tampa defense.
SAINTS 38 - BUCS 27
FANTASY BEASTS - BREES TO GRAHAM
This spread initially opened at -3.5 which I feel is a better place for it. The Cowboys looked good at home last week against the Saints, but they will be facing a much better defense this week. This game will most likely stay on the ground, as both of these teams love to run the football. Sounds like a low scoring game that will be decided by turnovers. Both teams have been playing much better than expected this season and both currently hold 3-1 records. The question comes down to which team can keep it up. It definitely helps the Dallas is playing at home, but the Texans arguably have one of the best defenses in the league this year and will look to slow down this Dallas offense that has averaged 28.8 points per game. Houston is much better against the pass than they are against the run, so expect the Cowboys to keep feeding DeMarco Murray the football. The MVP for the Texans this season has been fantasy super beast JJ Watt, who has more touchdowns than Arian Foster this year so far. The Texans will need another dominant performance from Watt this week (and ideally another touchdown) to help Houston win on the road. I expect this to be a low scoring and close ball game. I think the spread and the over/under are both too high. Don’t be shocked if the Texans pull this one out.
COWBOYS 20 - TEXANS 17
FANTASY BEAST - DEMARCO MURRAY
The Lions are playing absolutely great football right now. And they get to face Kyle Orton this week. And the Bills like to run the ball, but this is not the week to do so. The Lions are only allowing an average of 81 yards per game on the ground. The Bills have actually done a better job shutting down the run, only allowing 72 yards on the ground, but there is one major difference in this one. The Lions do not run the ball that often and and completely focus their offense around Matt Stafford, Megatron, and the passing game. The Bills allow an average of 266 in the air, and expect that number to rise after playing the Lions this week. I don’t think that Orton will be the answer to get this Bills offense back on track, especially against the Lions. This game has the potential to be a blow out if the Bills can not find a way to slow down Stafford. Both of these defenses have held opponents to an average of less than 20 points per game, but I think Detroit puts up plenty more than 20 this week and covers the spread. The Bills have surprised me at times this year, but I’m not expecting to be surprised this week.
LIONS 27 - BILLS 13
FANTASY BEAST - LIONS DEFENSE
The Ravens defense will have their work cut out for them this week. Baltimore is allowing an average of just 15 points per game to opponents this year, but will meet their match against a fantastic offensive unit in the Colts who average 34 points per game. This will be a battle and should be a very close game when all said and done. The Ravens have been playing excellent football so far this season, but they will have their handful with the Colts this week. Both quarterbacks have been playing lights out this year so far, and I expect to see a lot of action in the air, considering that both teams are pretty solid against the run. The Ravens are only allowing 83 yards on the ground, so that doesn’t bode well for Trent Richardson. Since 2001, the Ravens have never beaten the Colts in Indy (0-4), but that was also when some guy named Peyton Manning was at the helm. The Ravens can win this game on the road and I think it will come down to how much success Joe Flacco has throwing the football. The x-factor in this one will be Steve Smith Sr. who has been absolutely unstoppable this season. I think the Ravens could pull this one out, but I’ll play it safe and just have them covering that spread.
COLTS 24 - RAVENS 23
FANTASY BEAST - STEVE SMITH SR.
Until I see the Jags lose by less than 100 points, I’m going to take whoever they’re playing with the spread to the bank. Unless Blake Bortles can turn this ship around, I don’t even see Jacksonville winning a game this season. They just look so bad. Nobody on their team seems to care either. They all obviously know that they are not going to do anything this season, so why try hard and get hurt? I do like Bortles and I believe that he will be a good quarterback one day, but he’s going to need a team around him to do so (and right now he does not have a team around him). The Steelers on the other hand can not be pleased that they let that game against Tampa Bay slip out of their hands. They should be sitting at 3-1, and potentially 4-1 after this game, but Mike Glennon put a stop to that one. Don’t expect Bortles to do that to the Steelers again this week. The Steelers are not going to let this game get away from them and I expect a complete whomping. Pittsburgh will keep the pedal to the floor and completely blow out the Jags this week. Why am I even still writing?
STEELERS 45 - JAGS 17
FANTASY BEASY - ANTONIO BROWN
Is there any team in the league that would like to face Peyton Manning at home after a bye week? The Cards have been playing excellent football so far, but they might be a little out matched in this one. Drew Stanton vs. Peyton Manning… Hmm… I think I like the future Hall of Famer in this one. The Cardinals have an excellent defense, but they are much better against the run than against the pass. I do not see this being a blowout as the spread somewhat suggests, but I do sees the Broncos winning pretty consistently. They just have too many weapons on offense. Now that being said, this is a good opportunity for Stanton to have a big game. Denver hasn’t been great against the pass (allowing an average of 285 passing yards per game). The Cards will have to get that ariel attack going quick to make this a game. Denver has yet to lose at home this year and I don’t believe that this will be the week that it happens. The Cardinals do have a good team this year, but I feel that they come back down to Earth after their trip to Denver tomorrow. At the end of this matchup, both of these teams will be 3-1.
BRONCOS 24 - CARDINALS 20
FANTASY BEAST - JULIUS THOMAS
The Niners get another home game that should give them the edge to pull this one out. The Chiefs are flying high after that big win against the Pats last Monday night, but the 49ers are a much better team than New England this season. San Fran is absolutely lethal against the run, only allowing a measly 70 yards on the ground this season, but they will face one of the league’s best in Jamaal Charles on Sunday. Both of these teams run the ball well, but it will be a little easier to run against the Chiefs. KC will not put up 40+ points this week against the Niners, I can promise you that. This will be a low scoring battle, but I do feel that the over/under is right about where it should be. Unless Kaepernick completely self destructs, the Niners should come out on top in this one. But expect the Chiefs to play hard and give them a run for their money. The Chiefs really need Charles to have a huge day, but that will obviously be easier said than done. Old man Gore has continued to play well this year and he has an excellent rookie RB in Carlos Hyde patiently waiting to take over the reigns. I see the Niners keeping it on the ground this week and grinding out another close victory.
49ERS 23 - CHIEFS 20
FANTASY BEAST - FRANK GORE
I would not want to be the Jets or Gino Smith in this one. Michael Vick could be starting after half time. The only problem is that Vick is done. He’s not the same quarterback he once was and never will be again. Trust me, if he was the Jets savior, he would have already been starting this game. They know he’s just not that good any more. Vick could possibly be even more of a turnover machine than Gino Smith has been this year. But I do understand Jets fans growing impatient and at 1-3, why not bring in Vick? It can’t get much worse. And the Chargers on the other hand have been playing outstanding football. Rivers has been absolutely awesome so far and considering that the Jets are great against the run and San Diego has nobody to run the ball, expect the Chargers to keep it in the air until they have a comfortable lead. Donald Brown has proven that he is not the answer. Keenan Allen finally came to life last week and I don’t see him slowing down against this sub-par Jets pass defense. I think this is the week that the Jets completely self-destruct on all levels and we get to see just how bad Michael Vick is now.
CHARGERS 36 - JETS 13
FANTASY BEAST - PHILIP RIVERS
The Patriots opened as favorites in this game, but then I think everyone realized that the Bengals are a far better team. Cincinnati is one of the most complete teams in the league and New England has more holes than a golf course. Of course this is the week that New England wakes up and puts it back together, but they aren’t playing the Jaguars. The Bengals will put the whom down on the Pats this week in New England. The Bengals are only allowing 11, that’s right, 11 points per game so far this season. And they are playing against a now horrible offensive unit in New England that can’t seem to do anything right. The Patriots have also really struggled on both sides of the ground game. They can’t run and they can’t seem to stop the run. Sounds like a big day for Giovani Bernard. I think this is the week that Pats fans really start to worry. I think you’re going to see Cinci come into Foxboro and lay it on the Pats. There will be two major statements after this game is over. The Bengals are a powerhouse and the Patriots are in need of a serious overhaul. I think that the Bengals are getting a very generous spread here considering how both teams have looked so far.
BENGALS 27 - PATRIOTS 10
FANTASY BEAST - GIOVANI BERNARD
Washington has been completely dismantled by injuries this season. Losing RG3 on offense and DeAngelo Hall on defense has proved to be two absolutely huge loses. Kirk Cousins completely self-destructed last Thursday night. It was one of the worst quarterback performances I’ve ever seen. Now he gets to give it another go against the LOB. Colt McCoy is licking his lips right now. The Redskins defense is actually right on par with the Seahawks this season if you compare the numbers. Total average yards allowed per game: SEA 321 - WSH 324. And offensively, the Redskins have averaged more yards per game (thanks to Kirk Cousins fantasy wonder game against the Eagles). But the stats that matters the most are points per game and record, both won by Seattle. The Seahawks have averaged 27.7 PPG and are 2-1. The Redskins have averaged 23.8 and are 1-3. The Redskins could easily be 3-1 this season if a couple things bounced their way, so their current record is deceiving, but after watching them get completely dominated by the G-Men last week it’s hard to have much confidence in them this week. That game against NY made them look like an 0-4 team. Good thing they had Jacksonville on their schedule. The Seahawks are the better team obviously and should get the win in D.C. this Monday night. We’ll see if Cousins can shake off that horrible performance and produce a solid effort this week, but it won’t be easy against this Seattle secondary. The Redskins are a streaky team. When they are playing well and winning, they’re tough to beat, but when they are bad, they are really bad.
SEAHAWKS 27 - REDSKINS 17
FANTASY BEASY - RUSSELL WILSON
Overall, last week played out how I had expected for the most part with a couple surprises. The Panthers, Dolphins, 49ers, Packers, and Bills need to work out some issues to get back to a competitive status. The Jags are obviously in for a brutal season, but there are definitely a couple teams looking at week four as a must-win point in their season. As the Redskins embarrassingly discovered last Thursday night against the G-Men, there is a massive difference between being a 2-2 team compared to 1-3. Especially when you have the defending Super Bowl champs coming up next. And unless Kirk Cousins returns to Superman status, the Skins might be long out of it before RG3 even has a chance to return. The easiest game to call of the week was Indy vs. the Jags. Nailed that one pretty hard. So here were my results for Week 3.
Money Line: 10-5
AST: 8-6-1
O/U - 7-7-1
Homeruns (ATS & O/U) - 4
Fantasy Beasts - 10-5
Neutral field in London, so neither team has an advantage there, but Raider Nation does surprisingly represent everywhere. The biggest stat that stands out to me in this one is that the Dolphins are currently 7th in the league in Rushing Offense, and the Raiders are 28th in the league in Rushing Defense. So that sounds like a nice day for Lamar Miller. Both teams play the pass well, and both teams have struggled passing the ball, so this one will stay on the ground. The only problem is that the Raiders have only averaged 64.3 yards on the ground and currently rank 29th in the league in Rushing Offense. So because of that stat, I see a ton of handoffs to Lamar Miller as the Dolphins eat up the clock and slowly pull out a win. The Raiders need that win, but I just don't think they will get this one. Hopefully this turns into a high-flying scorefest for the fans across the pond, but I don't really see this slow roller surpassing the over.
DOLPHINS 20 - RAIDERS 16
FANTASY BEAST: LAMAR MILLER
I think the spread says it all. This is going to be a battle, as expected. The Bears defense has been highly suspect, which is a sigh of relief for Aaron Rodgers who is attempting to get this offense back on track. The Packers really need a big win to "R-E-L-A-X" and get back to business. I believe that is why the Packers are favored in this one, because the Bears defense allowed plenty of yards in the air to Gino Smith, so what can Rodgers do? And for that reason, I am rolling with the Packers. Fuller will be a guaranteed distraction for Rodgers, but there's also a chance Jared Allen might not play due to an illness. The Packers did a pretty good job shutting down Stafford & Megatron last week, so if they are able to maintain that success against Cutler this week, it will drastically improve their chances of pulling this one out. The biggest X-Factor in this one is a healthy Brandon Marshall. He's the spread buster. If he can return to form, the Bears will have a chance to hold this one down, but I'll play it safe and stick with the Packers who should be able to score against this defense on the road. Absolute slugfest.
PACKERS 27 - BEARS 23
FANTASY BEAST: AARON RODGERS
This is another one of those games that has ugly written all over it. The only thing that stands out in this matchup is how bad the Texans have been against the run. The Bills will need Spiller to take advantage of this weakness and exploit it with his explosiveness. Fred Jackson will also see his touches this week without a doubt. If the Bills can establish a running game early, it will obviously help them take control and win this game. The Texans are beat up and most likely without Arian Foster, meaning Blue will have to carry the load but once again. So I have two X-Factors in this game that will most likely predict the outcome; Foster and Sammy Watkins. If Foster does not play or plays in a limited role, the Texans will struggle to win this home game. If Watkins goes off and compliments the running game for Buffalo, the Bills pull off the road win. If both Foster is out and Watkins beasts it out, the Bills win in fashion. But I do like the Texans at home, I like their defense a lot, and I think they will give EJ Manuel a tough time. Manuel has an abdomen issue going on right now and don't think for one second JJ Watt doesn't have a bulls eye on it. This game will most likely be an offensive mess on both ends, with the best defense flexing for the victory. And any team that has JJ Watt on the defensive (and offensive), side of the ball will usually win the defensive battle. Texans win at home in a close one, but the Bills without a doubt have a chance to take this one.
TEXANS 20 - BILLS 17
FANTASY BEAST: CJ SPILLER
This one isn't looking good for the Titans. The only thing that the Titans have going for them is the fact that the Colts have an injury list almost as long as the Redskins. Tennessee does have the second best pass defense. They should be able to hold Luck to under 300 yards, but at the same time, the Titans will need to score to make this one close. Locker is questionable and far from 100%, which doesn't bode well for the Titans chances of pulling this one out. The Colts are at home, they want to bring their record back to .500, and the Titans after this week should be a 1-3 team because they're just not that good. I think the spread is almost a lock for the Colts to cover and though the Titans pass defense will keep Luck somewhat in check, he will ultimately win this battle. The Titans are holding opposing passing offenses to 170 yards on average, but I would pretty much bet everything in the world that Andrew Luck surpasses that total. I'm thinking around 260 yards in the air and 20+ points. And I just don't think the Titans have the offense that can score 20 points right now, especially with Locker on the ropes. Colts should win this one convincingly, but they better start stopping the pass. This should be a good game for them to do well in that department.
COLTS 26 - TITANS 13
FANTASY BEAST: COLTS DEFENSE
Well this one seems easy. The Ravens worked the Steelers. The Steelers worked the Panthers. Therefore the Ravens will work the Steelers. Don't you wish it was that easy. The Panthers got punked and they do have a solid defense. Carolina will play tough in this one, guaranteed, and the Ravens are susceptible to turning over the ball (Flacco), but given the fact that this one is in Baltimore, I have to give the Ravens the edge. Cam obviously has not been 100% and it showed last week, but he will need to be a beast in this game to pull this one out on the road. C.J. Mosely will make that task even more difficult. The Ravens love playing at home, they are an incredibly tough team to play at home, and the Panthers just seemed to be out-matched in this one. The stat advantage goes back and forth. The Ravens have been rushing the ball well and the Panthers have been horrible against the run. The Panthers are 10th in the league in Passing Offense and the Ravens are 23rd in the league in Passing Defense. So both teams have a weakness to exploit, but this one will come down to Cam Newton being able to get Kelvin Benjamin the ball downfield and the Ravens being able to run all over this suspect Panthers run defense. So how does that work out... The Ravens focusing on running the ball and controlling the clock with the Panthers attempting to score in the air to establish an early lead. This should be a great game, but the Ravens will most likely come out on top.
RAVENS 27 - PANTHERS 23
FANTASY BEAST: KELVIN BENJAMIN
The Jets are number one against the run, but they can be beat in the secondary. That's not good news when you play the Lions, ranked 6th in the league in Passing Offense. Stafford will need to have a good game for the Lions to really pull away in this one, but the Jets are scrappy. New York runs the ball well, but the Lions are 2nd in rushing defense. So let's expect this game to go to the air. So now we're looking at an air battle. So therefor we are looking at Stafford vs. Gino. So looking at the obvious here, the Lions should win this one on the road. Megatron is banged up, but if he's able to make it our on the field, that will drastically improve the Lions chances of winning this ball game. Because this one will go to the air, I believe the over will be challenged and despite the looks of a defensive battle, we could see some points in this one. I say the Lions jump out to a solid half time lead, and the Jets do their best to come back but fall short.
LIONS 27 - JETS 20
FANTASY BEAST: MATT STAFFORD
The Bucs haven't done anything well this season. That includes winning ball games. So Glennon gets the start and has his chance to prove that he is this team's franchise quarterback. The Steelers defense has been far from lights out and they are missing a ton of starters right now. Tampa Bay will have their chance to prove their worth against this depleted defense, but the Bucs must get their own defense on track or Big Ben and company will eat them alive. The table is set for Roethlisberger to have a huge game and it's up to him and this running game to get it done. And I feel that they will. Antonio Brown is primed to have a career day against this Bucs pass defense and could give the Steelers the supreme advantage in this potential blow-out. Pittsburgh should be feeling good about this match-up and should not screw up this opportunity to advance to 3-1. In the Bucs defense, they will fight their asses off to prevent dropping to 0-4.
STEELERS 31 - BUCS 17
FANTASY BEAST: ANTONIO BROWN
Well Borltes has his chance to prove his worth. Unfortunately he has to fly across the country and play the Chargers in San Diego. The Chargers are going to pound the Jags, let's be honest here. The Jags are inspiring me to move to Vegas and just bet against them in every game for the remainder of the season. The Chargers will win this one, you will not be allowed to play the money line, and the Chargers will cover. You know it, I know it, and that 13 point spread will be dust by the end of the game. If the Jags do not improve with Bortles behind center, you will start seeing college like 20+ point spreads against Jacksonville. So the Jags are 30th in the league against the pass. Rivers is smiling. Keenan Allen is definitely smiling because it gives him a chance to get back to fantasy relevance. And considering that the Jags are 29th against the run, Donald Brown, the lone man standing in San Diego's backfield, has his chance to dominate Sportscenter this week with this match-up. This game shouldn't be close and I'm not even concerned about this being a trap game considering the under twenty point spread. The only chance the Jags have in this one is if Bortles proves why he was the first QB taken in the draft. If he fails, so do the Jags in another blow out.
CHARGERS 38 - JAGUARS 17
FANTASY BEAST - PHILIP RIVERS
There will be a ton of bets on the Eagles to cover this one. Right now, the Eagles are the better team, even on the road. So the fact that they are four and a half point dogs and most people think that the Eagles will win the game, screw the spread and take Philly with the money line. The Niners do need to win this one and the Eagles can be beat in the air, so all of the pressure will be on Kaepernick to have a big game. You can also run against the Eagles, so Gore and Hyde will be heavily relied on in this one. San Fran must find ways to control the clock and keep this Eagles offense off of the field. The Niners have been doing a solid job against the run, but McCoy obviously has the potential to dismantle any run defense. I feel that the Eagles have too many weapons for the Niners to contain, but Philly is having issues along the line, so there's your mismatch. If the 49ers can get pressure on Foles, they will have a chance to slow him down, but he proved his resilience last week against that hard hitting Skins defense and came away with the win. I think he will do so again this week and leave San Francisco with a terrifying 1-3 start.
EAGLES 24 - 49ERS 20
FANTASY BEAST - JEREMY MACLIN
This is where Zimmer needs to really stress his defensive knowledge. The Falcons can score. They have been extremely explosive, but the only team that was able to slow them down were the Bengals defense. And Zimmer just so happened to coach that Cincy defense last season. He's taking notes and will be attempting to duplicate the Bengals success against this offense. The Vikings can slow down this Falcons offense, and I don't see Atlanta putting up 30+ points against this defense, but the Vikings are going to have to score a bunch to win this game. And the Vikings have a rookie QB with no AP and no Kyle Rudolph going up against an excellent Falcons squad. You have to put your money on the Falcons in this one, but don't second guess for one second that the reason that this spread is only at 3 is because Don Zimmer will have this Vikings defense ready to go. This one could start out very slow, but the Falcons should pull away because of their offensive supremacy. The Vikings need to realize that their offensive supremacy lies in the hands of that Tennessee Vol, Cordarrelle Patterson. Norv Truner said that he needs to get him the ball, and if this offense has any chance to succeed, well, they need to get the ball in Patterson's possession as many times as possible. They will try this week.
FALCONS 27 - VIKINGS 13
FANTASY BEAST - CORDARRELLE PATTERSON
Don't get it twisted, the Saints are the better team in this match-up. They have the better offense, they have the better defense, and Dallas is a great place to play on the road. Despite the absolute beastness that Jerry Jones built, it's an easy building to win in. It almost feels like a Super Bowl neutral zone for opponents, and Drew Brees will take advantage of that road comfortability and this soft Dallas defense. This could mean an absolutely huge game for Brees. Considering that the Saints are a better team than the Cowboys, yet the Saints are 1-2 and the Boys are 2-1, these records will get balanced out after this week. Despite the Saints having the 27th ranked pass defense, I feel that they will eventually get the best of Romo. Dez is almost impossible to stop, but I could see Romo putting up solid stats, yet failing at the end to pull this one out. I think he will be playing from behind and pull a couple "Cousins" while attempting to make the game interesting. Expect INT's from Romo. If Dallas is smart, they will attempt to run Murray into the ground to keep Brees off of the field. Establishing Murray and the ground game early, keeping the score close, and capitalizing off of potential turnovers will be the key to a Dallas victory. Unfortunately for Cowboy fans, Drew Brees is coming to town. Good luck.
SAINTS 31 - COWBOYS 24
FANTASY BEAST - DREW BREES
At first I was thinking, what a horrible Monday Night matchup. Last season at this time, this was the game of the week. This year, not too excited for this battle. And that being said, watch this be the most exciting game of the week. Kansas City made a statement in Miami that they were no bitches, going into Florida and proving that they were still a team that could whomp your ass. Charles is the engine to this offense, but don't sleep on Alex Smith. He's a game manager that takes advantage of the weaknesses spotted on defense. Reid will do his best to get revenge against the Pats with his new squad, but they will be facing the dynasty. The Patriots have been and are that established dynasty. If you were playing Madden in franchise mode, you would hope to have a dynasty like the Patriots have had over the years. That being said, the Patriots are that team that can come in your house and beat you. Why? Because they are the Patriots. These teams actually matchup quite well, accordingly to the numbers, but the biggest stat that stands out is the Pats pass defense is currently 1st in the league. But to the advantage of Kansas City, they obviously do not rely on their passing game. The Chiefs are a run first team and will have to get those RB's going against the Pats to pull this one out. But I think that Brady will shine in prime time and lead the Pats to a close win on the road.
PATRIOTS 24 - CHIEFS 23
FANTASY BEAST - TOM BRADY
This has blow-out stamped on the ticket. If the Titans couldn't handle the Cowboys last week, they will get completely handled by Cinci this week. The Bengals are better across the board in this match-up, and it doesn't help Tennessee that this game is in Ohio. The Bengals should have no problem scoring on this defense and should also have no problem stopping this suspect Titan offense. Expect a big day from Gio, as Murray absolutely torched the Titans last week. AJ Green looks as if he will be a go this weekend, which will only help Dalton's stats. The Bengals appear to be the real deal this year, and the Titans, well, they don't. Expect Cinci to pound the rock and pound the Titans as well. This is a very generous spread. Bank on the Bengals covering 7.5 with no problem at all.
BENGALS 31 - TITANS 13
FANTASY BEAST: GIOVANI BERNARD
The Bills have been playing excellent football, but San Diego is coming off a massive home win against the defending Super Bowl champs. It's always tough for any team to fly across the country to play ball, especially a 1pm game, but let's be honest here... The Chargers are the better team in this match-up. Rivers has been playing excellent and will truly test just how solid this Bills defensive unit really is. Good news for the Bills is that first round draft pick Sammy Watkins seems to be the real deal. The Chargers will need Keenan Allen on the field who has been dealing with an injury. This game will come down to the success in the air between these two teams. That being said, I have to put my money on Rivers. But this will be a close one. Playing in Buffalo is never easy and the fans will be ready to rock. I believe Rivers will get it done, but this will be an AFC slugfest.
CHARGERS 23 - BILLS 20
FANTASY BEAST: KEENAN ALLEN
All signs point to a Dallas victory in this one, but the Rams are a sneaky team. St. Louis has a tough front seven and will test Romo if he attempts to throw. But with Murray playing so well, and considering his prior success against the Rams, why would the Cowboys throw the ball? The Rams are obviously having offensive issues, but they might not get an easier defensive match-up to put points on the board than against this Dallas defense. In the Cowboys defense, their defense has been playing much better than anticipated, but they are far from an elite unit. Dallas will commit to the run and as long as turnovers don't come in to play, the Cowboys should run away with this one. The Rams are a tough team and will not give up easily. It wouldn't shock me if the Rams pulled this one out, but they will have to shut down Murray to do so. And that will be easier said than done.
COWBOYS 27 - RAMS 17
FANTASY BEAST: DEMARCO MURRAY
Well it's up to Captain Kirk Cousins to get it done. Unfortunately he won't be playing the Jags this weekend. On top of that, the Skins will be playing in an extremely hostile environment in Philly as well. The Eagles will have to score points early in this game to take it, because this Washington defense is really playing well. Philadelphia can not count on coming from behind again this week. If the Eagles fall back early, the Redskins should win this one. The Skins can score on this Eagles defense. That being said, the Eagles will struggle to score against this Washington defense. The key to the Redskins winning this game is being able to stop McCoy and Sproles. The key to the Eagles winning this game is bringing Kirk Cousins down to Earth. If the Skins stay committed to the run and play good defense, they can beat the Eagles. But until I see Kirk Cousins play consistently in back to back games, I have to go with the Eagles in this one.
EAGLES 27 - REDSKINS 24
FANTASY BEAST: LESEAN MCCOY
The Giants need to get something going, but this Houston defense will not make that easy. I have a feeling that JJ Watt is going to completely terrorize Eli. NY has a ton of pressure on them to win this one, but it's not going to be easy. This has "Ugly Game" written all over it. Whoever wins the turnover battle in this one will decide the winner. Considering that Eli is a turnover machine these days, you have to give the Texans the advantage in this one. The Texans will need to score points and their offense is far from elite, but I think you will see this Texans defense putting some points on the board this week. Eli will need to play lights out to win this game, but I just don't see it happening.
TEXANS 17 - GIANTS 13
FANTASY BEAST: JJ WATT
This AP situation is really torturing Minnesota. It's really unfortunate, because Zimmer really had this team ready to go week one. Then the AP debacle. Then the Pats. Now the Saints. The Vikings are not sitting in a good situation this week, especially facing a Saints team that needs a win more than Drew Brees needs Bosley. Zimmer has always been a defensive minded coach, but the Saints are bringing more fire power than the Vikings defense can handle. It doesn't help that this one is in New Orleans and these fans are pissed. The Saints not only need a win, but they need a big win to get some confidence back. The Saints will be firing on all cylinders and should be able to score a ton of points. The Vikings, well, just give the ball to Patterson and see what happens.
SAINTS 38 - VIKINGS 17
FANTASY BEAST: DREW BREES
Nobody needs to explain this rivalry. The Browns hate to lose to the Ravens at home more than anyone else. That being said, they probably will though. The Browns are just missing too much talent on offense right now. The Ravens defense is solid and will make it difficult for the Browns to move the ball. But the Browns defense is no slouch either, and they should give the Ravens some offensive trouble as well. Despite this game having all of the attributes to be a low scoring defensive grudge match, it also wouldn't surprise me to see a score to the likes of 38-35. But I'll stick to the facts and the belief that the Ravens are just the better team in this game. As long as Flacco doesn't self destruct, the Ravesn should win this one, but it will be close.
RAVENS 20 - BROWNS 16
FANTASY BEAST: STEVE SMITH SR.
Talk about an offensive slug match. Two premier QB's and two premier WR's going head to head. Rodgers gets the nod over Stafford and Calvin gets the nod over Jordy, but let's just play it safe and say they will all most likely kill it this weekend. This will be a shoot out. You can put that in the books now. This will be a back and forth battle, possibly right from the get go. Even if the score is 7 to 3 at half time it will end up 45 to 42. Quite honestly I have no idea who will win this one, so usually in that case I roll with the home team. But it wouldn't surprise me at all obviously to see the Pack pull this one out. But they must stop Megatron, and, well, that is extremely difficult. But stopping A-Rod is no easy task either. This should be an air battle and the best QB will win. And for that, I will take A-Rod in this shootout.
PACKERS 38 - LIONS 34
FANTASY BEAST: AARON RODGERS
The Colts are getting a very generous spread in this one considering how bad the Jags have looked. Andrew Luck is pissed. I promise you that. And he will take it out on Jacksonville this weekend. This is blow out central and could possibly get Gus Bradley fired on Monday. The Jags really have nothing going for them other than a first round QB with a lot to prove. Bortles may be the long term answer for the Jags, but he won't be the answer this week. Even if the Jags decide to start Bortles, it won't help much. I fully expect to see Bortles playing after half-time with the Jags down by four scores, but that's not the best situation to bring him in. They honestly should just start him after how the offense looked last week. But either way, Luck will light up the Jags and embarrass them at home. The only thing that the Jags have going for them is that Gus knows his job is on the line and might have his team amped up and ready to play in front of their hometown fans. But even with that being said, Luck needs this win more than anyone and he will get it.
COLTS 42 - JAGUARS 16
FANTASY BEAST: ANDREW LUCK
Just by the spread alone, I feel this game has trap written all over it. But as the spread says, this game has blow out written all over it. The Pats are just so much better than the Raiders. Any way I attempt to see how the Raiders might be able to win this game, I just can't see it happening. Could they beat the spread? Possibly. Are they going to win this game? Not a chance. Not in New England and not against Tom Brady. The Patriots were built to not lose games like this at home. The Raiders are traveling across the country for a 1pm game against the preseason favorites by many to win the Super Bowl. Now I do not think the Pats will win the bowl this year, but I do believe that they will beat the Raiders this week. This will be a dissection quarter by quarter and they will most likely double this spread. This will be a game Raiders fans will look to forget.
PATRIOTS 31 - RAIDERS 10
FANTASY BEAST: PATRIOTS DEFENSE
The Cardinals are a tough team, don't get it twisted, but I can't put too much faith in Drew Stanton. The Cards are excellent against the run, and the Niners are a run-first team, but I don't see the Cards offense being able to do what the Bears did last week to San Fran. The 49ers got robbed of a victory last week and the Cards are sitting undefeated and in first place in their division. As if the 49ers need any extra motivation here. This is the week Arizona comes back down to reality and also the week that the Niners make a statement that they are still an elite team. This will not be a high scoring game. Both of these defensive units are solid and will cause both offenses to struggle. But when all said and done, I think the 49ers will come away with the win and the same record as the Cards.
49ERS 17 - CARDINALS 13
FANTASY BEAST: 49ERS DEFENSE
Okay Denver, here's your chance to punch the bully in the face. In their own stadium. The Chargers exposed the Seahawks as a team that can be beat. The Broncos are looking to stay undefeated. Peyton probably hasn't slept since that Super Bowl defeat. That Seattle whomping in the Super Bowl last year had Peyton focus even more this offseason. He has had this game mentally circled in his brain. But there's only one problem. The Seahawks are going to beat them again. Now this won't be a Super Bowl massacre like we saw earlier this year, but the Hawks will pull this one out. It's at home, they are upset that they lost in Diego, and they know they can beat the Broncos. Unless Peyton has found some loophole in this Seattle secondary, I don't see Peyton playing very well. I see at least two interceptions. I'd love to see Peyton go into Seattle and crush the Seahawks and regain some face this week, but honestly I don't see it happening. The Seahawks will rebound and put up enough points to beat Denver. Sorry Peyton.
SEAHAWKS 27 - DENVER 24
FANTASY BEAST: PERCY HARVIN
If Jamaal Charles plays this weekend, that will drastically improve Kansas City's chance of winning this one. But even if Charles returns, he won't be 100% and shouldn't make that big of an impact in this game. The Dolphins are coming back home after a tough loss to Buffalo last week. The Bills defense really shut down this Phins offense, and don't think for one second that Andy Reid wasn't studying how they did it. Miami should win this game. But the Chiefs are not as bad as they have looked. They have come back down to Earth after their solid season last year, but they aren't horrible. Miami will have their hands full in this one and it will be a close game. This is a statement game for the Chiefs. They need to come to Miami and pull out a victory or they're in for a long season. The Dolphins on the other hand do not want to fall to 1 and 2. I think that the Dolphins will win this one, but the Chiefs will cover in a close one. And don't be surprised if Kansas City ends up pulling this one out.
DOLPHINS 26 - CHIEFS 23
FANTASY BEAST: MIKE WALLACE
After the way the Steelers looked last week, I have to say the Panthers should win and cover this one. The Panthers defense is great, with or without Hardy, and should give Big Ben a rough day. Cam Newton is back and that's not good news for the Steelers. The Panthers have a chance to make a real statement this week and prove to the league that they are a top-notch team. They can do that with a big win against the Steelers this week. I obviously can't see this game being incredibly high scoring, but I can see Carolina winning convincingly. The Steelers will really need Roethlisberger to step up, as he has done before in big games, but it won't be easy this week. I think that this one just comes down to the better team at home. If the Panthers can shutdown Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, or at least prevent them from having big games, they will win convincingly. For some reason I see Kelvin Benjamin having a really big week.
PANTHERS 27 - STEELERS 17
FANTASY BEAST: KELVIN BENJAMIN
Oh, the Jets. I thought they were going to get blown out by the Pack last week only to watch them blow a huge lead. And the Bears... Just when I thought that they were dead in the water they came back and stunned San Fran. The problem for the Jets is their secondary. The advantage for the Bears is their passing game. So there's your mismatch. The Jets will look to smash the ball and use play-action to their advantage, but I'm not sure if they will be able to score enough points to beat the Bears this Monday night. The stage will be set for a huge letdown in New York. The Jets are a well coached team and surprise me consistently, but I just feel that the Bears are the better team. Both defenses are suspect, so I'm expecting a lot of points in this one, but I just feel that the Bears will score more. As long as Cutler doesn't have one of those games (and Bears fans know exactly what I'm talking about), Chicago should be able to win this one in the air.
BEARS 31 - JETS 27
FANTASY BEAST: JAY CUTLER
I'm sure most of you have heard, but the NFL will allow Josh Gordon to play again this season, and he will arrive right before the playoffs begin. If you can afford the stash, he'll be worth the roster spot come weeks 14 to 16. He's one of the best and should be a solid addition to your lineup come the playoffs. He's no longer available in my league, and shouldn't be in yours either.
AP turned himself into police and was indicted on charges of causing injury to a child. With the recent Ray Rice issue, this is not good news for AP owners. Chances are that the NFL will come down extra hard on AP because of the recent abuse cases happening within the NFL. There is a great chance that AP will get a legnthy suspension from the NFL for this incident, so fantasy owners beware. You can roll the dice on Matt Asiata or rookie Jerick McKinnon to step in and pick up the carries, but it might be best to target a better option.
But, if you happen to own Corderelle Patterson, you're probably a happy camper. Expect the Vikings to include Patterson in the rushing gameplan even more with AP out. If you need a last minute replacement for AP, consider Jonathan Stewart because of the DeAngelo Williams injury. Williams is questionable, and even if he is a go, Stewart will still most likely have more carries. I'm not expecting a 100+ yard effort out of Stewart as a replacement, but scoring a TD is a decent possibility. Stewart is available in most leagues and might be your best answer to start at RB from the waiver wire this week.
There were plenty of fantasy owners that got burned from Aaron Rodgers and other Packers last week. But let's get one thing straight, they played the Seahawks. Pretty much any fantasy player going up against the Hawks this week will most likely struggle or be on your bench regardless. I'm positive that not too many people are starting Rivers this week. Benching fantasy players who play against Seattle that week will be the trend (which is also why I stayed away from fantasy players in the NFC West).
But don't count out the Pack. This offense will generate fantasy studs for the the remainder of the season. Don't allow a weak outing against arguably the best defense in the league worry you. Rodgers, when all said and done, will be a top 5 QB this year if he can stay healthy. Lacy will be a top 5 RB. Nelson and Cobb will be top 20 WR's. I'd say the bet of the week is the Packers absolutely smoking the Jets and a massive fantasy day from Aaron Rodgers and company.
Is it time to score Owen Daniels? Scoring two touchdowns in a game will always have you on my radar. Malcolm Floyd is another one to consider. Did Keenan Allen thrive because he took over Floyd's stats? Is Floyd back to reclaim those numbers? Jordan Matthews seems to be ending up on the wire as of late. Please remember that it takes rookie WR's a while to get going and Matthews is one helluva WR in a great offense. If Cooper or Maclin go down, Jordan will shine. Trust me. If you can afford to stash him, do so now.
Will Jake Locker finally turn out to be the man this year? He has Wright and Hunter to throw the ball to. Walker is a solid pass catching TE. Locker also has some wheels and can get you some points on the ground. I'm not syaing that you should pick up and start Locker as your QB this week. But if you need a backup QB to fill in for a bye week or if your starter goes down, Locker might be able to help you out.
BTW Donnie Avery had 13 targets last week for 84 yards on 7 catches. Who else is going to catch balls on the Chiefs other than Bowe? And how great has Bowe been lately? And if the Chiefs find themselves playing from behind, they will be forced to throw and Avery might end up being a solid WR to use (especially in a PPR league).
Devin Hester could end up being quite productive on this Atlanta roster. Hester could end up running down the field waving his hands all alone in the endzone this season as long as Roddy and Julio are snatching up all of the attention. Hester could be a sneaky play week to week during your starting WR's bye weeks.
Despite this advice sounding extremely obvious, sticking to this strategy can help you make a tough draft day decision whether it is in round one or the last pick in the draft. It's a proven fact that teams with better overall statistical production in total yards and points scored will produce more fantasy studs than the worst offenses in the league. Remember this when you are torn between choosing between two players on draft day. Keep it simple; who is on the better offense?
Last season, the top offensive teams (Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, Chicago, New England and Dallas) produced countless fantasy starters. But on the bottom tier of offensive production, teams like Baltimore, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Houston, and both New York teams only produced a handful of worthwhile starters. Out of those teams, only Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, Zac Stacy, and Torrey Smith would've been a worthwhile fantasy starter.
A prime example of a player that got picked relatively high in most fantasy drafts last season but suffered the wrath of being on a poor offense was Victor Cruz. Cruz was taken ahead of many solid fantasy producers last year strictly because of name and talent alone. But he was only able to muster four touchdowns and unable to gain more than 1,000 receiving yards because of the Giants offensive struggles. In most drafts, Cruz was taken before Desean Jackson, but the Eagles high powered offense helped Jackson to a fantastic fantasy season.
So when doing your fantasy research before the draft this season, make sure that you are targeting players on high powered offenses like Denver and Philadelphia. Also be aware of the teams that will most likely struggle to produce yards and points like Jacksonville and Houston. This could also make a tough draft day decision a lot easier
Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten and Jordan Cameron turned out to be fantasy team life savers for many owners last season. And Jimmy Graham alone helped many teams win it all. The value of a tight end in fantasy should not go underrated. There is almost nothing worse than searching for a viable tight end to use week to week on the waiver wire.
And don't be afraid to take Jimmy Graham in the first round. Graham at least doubled the amount of touchdowns from every other tight end other than Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas. Odds are he'll do that once again this season. If you are unable to draft Jimmy Graham, you should be immediately thinking about targeting Julius Thomas or Rob Gronkowski. Though if you do draft Gronk, it might be wise to back him up with the likes of Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, or Greg Olsen to play it safe.
If you decide to wait on a tight end, don't wait too long. You're fantasy team most likely will not be able to afford the risk of crossing your fingers and hoping that guys like Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener, Martellus Bennett, or Charles Clay pan out to produce weekly points for your team. Avoid that roll of the dice and secure a top tight end. If you feel that this is the year for guys like Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed to really come into their own at the position, that's up to you. But as far as I'm concerned, I will be concerned if I don't see Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas on my roster this year.
And if you are worried about passing on a top RB or WR to draft Graham instead, just remember these things:
1) It is always easier to find a worthwhile starter at RB or WR off of the waiver wire than it is finding a solid TE.
2) Don't forget about highly drafted RB's like Ray Rice
In many fantasy drafts, Calvin Johnson will be the first WR taken off the board. Without a doubt he is one of the best wide receivers in the game, but is he the #1 fantasy WR? He wasn't last season, and I don't believe he will be this season either. Demaryius Thomas slightly edged out Calvin Johnson statistically last season and I believe he will do it again this year too.
Denver has a better offense than Detroit and should put up more yards and points once again. Nobody will benefit more from another huge year from Peyton Manning than Demaryius Thomas. Calvin Johnson did come away with more targets (156 to 143) and yards (1492 to 1430), but Demaryius ended up with more receptions (92 to 84) and touchdowns (14 to 12). But down the stretch, Demaryius came through as Calvin disappeared when it mattered the most.
Calvin did return to double digit touchdown production, but the remainder of his stats took a huge dip as well as missing two games. Demaryius on the other hand almost duplicated the season he had before, but scored more touchdowns. The key to focus on is the consistency of their production and the consistency of their QB's. If both Manning and Stafford stay healthy this season, both are capable of producing 5,000+ passing yards. But let's be honest... Who's the better QB?
Both Johnson and Thomas will benefit from those quarterback's production, but who will benefit more? Now that the Lions have added a long needed and legit #2 receiver in Golden Tate and rookie pass catching TE Eric Ebron, Stafford will not have to solely rely on Megatron to carry the load of targets. Denver on the other hand lost Eric Decker to free agency and replaced him with Emanuel Sanders. I do believe that Sanders will be forced to immediately produce in this offense, but I also think that it wil
Listed below are my QB rankings and projected stats for this season. This is obviously considering that all QB's will remain healthy for the entire season. I do have serious concerns about guys like RG3, Romo, Stafford, Bradford, Cutler, and Newton being able to stay healthy. And guys like Peyton, Brees, Brady, Palmer, Roethlisberger, and Rivers aren't getting any younger. Not to mention even a guy like Rodgers who is in his prime got hurt last season, so anything can happen. But let's say they all stay healthy, this is what I expect them to produce.
1. Peyton Manning - 5,200 Passing Yards, 51 TD's, 8 INT's
2. Drew Brees - 5,100 Passing Yards, 41 TD's, 13 INT's
3. Aaron Rodgers - 4,600 Passing Yards, 39 TD's, 9 INT's
4. Andrew Luck - 4,300 Passing Yards, 29 TD's, 10 INT's (350 Rushing Yards, 5 Rush TD's)
5. Matt Stafford - 4,800 Passing Yards, 31 TD's, 18 INT's
6. Nick Foles - 4,500 Passing Yards, 34 TD's, 14 INT's
7. Matt Ryan - 4,700 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 15 INT's
8. Philip Rivers - 4,500 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 12 INT's
9. Tom Brady - 4,500 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 12 INT's
10. Robert Griffen III - 3,900 Passing Yards, 26 TD's, 16 INT's (500 Rushing Yards, 3 Rush TD's)
11. Tony Romo - 4,200 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 11 INT's
12. Cam Newton - 3,200 Passing Yards, 22 TD's, 15 INT's (500 Rushing Yards, 5 Rush TD's)
13. Ben Roethlisberger - 4,400 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 14 INT's
14. Jay Cutler - 4,300 Passing Yards, 30 TD's, 17 INT's
15. Andy Dalton - 4,200 Passing Yards, 28 TD's, 18 INT's (150 Rushing Yards, 1 Rush TD's)
16. Carson Palmer - 4,200 Passing Yards, 26 TD's, 19 INT's
17. Colin Kae
